Victory for US Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada guaranteed that Democrats would retain control of the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections. It also confirmed the strength of the Democratic Party in the West.
Democrats have wrested the region from Republican control since 1992, a shift that began with the end of the Cold War and has resulted in an economic recession on the Pacific Coast, anti-racist demonstrations and violence in Los Angeles, and the area’s growing diversity.
I am a political science professor who has published articles on key elections and the impact of regional changes in voting patterns on national presidential elections.
This change was particularly noticeable during the presidential elections. In the years 1952–1988, republican politicians dominated in the West – the so-called 13 states Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico in presidential contests, as well as a number of statewide contests. In presidential elections during these years, Democratic candidates averaged just 13.9% of the Electoral College votes from these Western states. In this election, Democrats received an average of 46.4% of the popular vote in the West.
But since 1992, Democrats have won an average of 76% of the Electoral College vote in the West in the 2020 election, with an average of 55% of the two-party vote in 13 states from the Pacific to the Rocky Mountains. Democrats won 58% of the vote in the western state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Government changes change the economy
The change began in the tardy 1980s with a series of military base closures across the country following the end of the Cold War. The President-appointed Base Clearance and Closure Commission determined which military bases should remain open and which should close as the country’s military needs change. The West took a disproportionate share, losing 48 bases, while the rest of the country as a whole lost 120.
This was especially true during the first two rounds of closures, in 1988 and 1991, under President George H. W. Bush, a Republican. The second series of shutdowns in 1993 and 1995, under Democratic President Bill Clinton, continued to rely heavily on the West, but not to the same extent as previous rounds.
Closing a military base has socio-economic costs: it means area loses jobs and income for local businessesespecially those that supplied the base or served its personnel or their families. There are also costs of military spouses losing their jobs and changes in a community’s sense of self, often accumulating over decades, especially in rural areas. This compounded the region’s economic problems by making Westerners more open to changing their vote from “R” to “D.”
Recession hits
Additional economic pressures emerged during the 1990–1991 recession, which disproportionately affected the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, according to Mary C. Działo et al. The West experienced the highest levels of unemployment of all four geographic regions, and those who lost their jobs or businesses felt the same is quick to blame Republicansespecially President George H. W. Bush, for tough economic times.
Racial violence
When in 1992 four Los Angeles police officers were found not guilty of charges in the beating death of Rodney King the previous year, the city of Los Angeles burst into flames violent demonstration against racism. Our analysis shows that these were the worst years of the 1980s and 1990s in terms of deaths, injuries and arrests.
Instead of acknowledging police brutality in this case that sparked public anger, President Bush focused on “mob brutality, plain and simple” – says UCLA sociologist Darnell Hunt. Bush also failed to understand the social and economic factors that cost jobs in Los Angeles and “federal support for housing, education and community building in inner cities,” Hunt wrote.
Republicans’ lack of understanding and effort opened up an opportunity for Democrats among minorities and sympathetic whites in the region.
Growing diversity
The West was also becoming more diverse compared to other regions. National Equity Atlas calculates a diversity index for each region based on: ranges from zero to 1.79where zero means that everyone in an area belongs to the same racial or ethnic group, and 1.79 means that there are the same number of people in each racial or ethnic group.
A look at the index from 1980 to 2019 shows that the West has long been more diverse than the rest of the country, and in the 1990s it was much more diverse. The rest of the country has started to catch up, but the West is still more diverse than the rest of the country.
More people of color lean Democratic thanks to the party’s increased emphasis on better treatment of minorities, as well open embrace of white supremacy by some members of the Republican Party.
Political independence
Residents of the region also showed that they were willing to change their political beliefs when independent candidate Ross Perot ran for president in 1992. On average, the West received greater support for the Texas businessman than the average for all other regions, 23.6% to 18.1%.
Nationally, voters also rewarded charismatic Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton in 1992, who actually took more votes from incumbent Republican George H. W. Bush than Perot.
Western victory means winning the White House
These economic, social, demographic and political factors of the early 1990s contributed to Democrats moving the region into their column. This translated into national success for Democrats, who in eight elections between 1992 and 2020 almost doubled their average Electoral College votes between 1952 and 1988. Meanwhile, the national average of GOP votes in the Electoral College dropped.
Over the past 30 years, Democrats have won nearly two-thirds of the nation’s Electoral College elections. And Republicans have won the popular vote only once since 1992, in 2004. It’s a trend that will likely give Democrats an electoral advantage nationally unless the GOP does a better job of appealing to Western voters.
Nicole Morales, a student at LaGrange College, contributed to this work.
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