In what is quickly becoming a trend, Vice President Kamala Harris AND Senator Bob Casey Jr. once again I got some good news from the polls as the latest Franklin & Marshall College Survey fell on Thursday.
Harris has a three-point lead over the former president Donald Trump46-43%, although the margin is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%. It is the fourth consecutive Keystone State voter survey to show the vice president ahead of Trump in the past week.
Casey increased his lead over his Republican opponent Dave McCormick since the last F&M poll in March. Pennsylvania’s senior senator has a 48-36 percent lead — five points more than in the previous poll. It’s only the second time in the last six PA polls that Casey has received less than 50 percent support, while it’s McCormick’s lowest percentage result, according to a neutral polling group, since May.
President
Harris’ 3-point lead over Trump continues trend favoring Democrats Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In the survey, the figure was 6%, while 3% indicated they did not know.
Nearly 8 in 9 respondents (87%) said they were “absolutely sure” who they would vote for, while only 1 in 8 (12%) said they were “still deciding.” Among those undecided, 27% were leaning toward Harris, while 23% favored Trump.
Harris drew sturdy votes from women (52-39%), voters under 35 (57-21%) and those with a college education (61-30%). Trump’s strength came from men (50-39%), voters over 55 (49-43%) and those with a high school education or less (59-29%).
Independents also favored Harris by seven percentage points (40%-33%).
One in seven (14%) said a candidate’s economic policies were most significant in deciding who to support in the election. Twelve percent said their benchmark was “honesty/integrity/good character,” while 10% said “not Trump/not a Republican/don’t support Trump” was their limit.
More respondents said Harris best understands the concerns of average Americans (46-42), is most aligned with their views on value issues like abortion and same-sex marriage (49-40), has the character and good judgment to be president (46-38) and is the most straightforward and trustworthy (45-32). Trump received higher marks for being prepared to handle the economy (51-39) and for better handling the task of commander in chief (47-40).
The percentage of respondents who say “Trump’s actions to stay in power after the 2020 election were serious” is the lowest since F&M first asked the question, at 55%.
US Senate
Casey’s 12-point lead equals his highest in the F&M poll, tying the 47%-35% lead he had in February 2024. Thirteen percent indicated they did not know who they would vote for. McCormick received 20% support among low supporters, while Casey received just 12%. More people said the senior senator’s job was excellent or good (38%) than at any point in the F&M poll since October 2018 (43%).
Women (53-30%), newborn voters (60-17%) and those with college degrees (61-28%) all strongly support Casey. McCormick does not do impressively well among most groups except those with a high school education or less (47-29%) and born-again or evangelical Christians (67-15%).
Governor
Governor Josh Shapirowho was the Democratic vice presidential runner-up, has the highest approval rating for a Pennsylvania chief executive at this point in his first term since Governor Tom Ridge at 52%. More women (58%) than men (45%) approve of Shapiro’s work, while those with a four-year college degree (65%) approve by nearly two-thirds. He also receives high marks from the Philadelphia and southeastern Pennsylvania regions (62%), compared with just 36% from the state’s northwest region.
Doctor Feelgood
Forty-three percent of respondents to the survey of 920 likely voters said “things in Pennsylvania are generally heading in the right direction” — the highest percentage in the F&M poll since October 2020 (43%). The 47% of those who “feel things are heading in the wrong direction” is also the lowest since that 2020 survey.
The most significant problem
Not surprisingly, for the fifth year in a row, the economy/finances were seen by respondents as the most significant issue facing Pennsylvania today (23%). This is the highest since the Oct. 22 survey (28%). Government/politicians remained the second choice (11%), followed by education (10%).
Crime, which was as high as 19% in April 2023, came fourth with a score of 6%.
Finances
Twenty-one percent of respondents said they and their families would be better off financially in a year, compared with 20% who said they would be “worse off.” This is the second consecutive survey to show more feelings of being better off than worse off.
Various
- Student access to mobile phones during school hours – 12% in favor, 84% against
- Hunting on Sunday – 49% in favor, 34% against
- Open primary elections – 77% in favor, 20% against
- Republicans – Republican Trump (45%), Traditional Republican (43%)
- Democrats – Progressive (42%), Centrist (38%)
- Gun control – 60% in favor, 37% against
- Abortion – 89% legal in some or all circumstances, 9% illegal in all circumstances
Work efficiency
- President Joe Biden – 35% excellent or good, 64% satisfactory or penniless
- Casey – 38% Excellent or Good, 46% Fair or Poor
- Governor Josh Shapiro – 51% excellent or good, 40% satisfactory or penniless
Favor
- Biden – minus-17 (41-58)
- Trump – minus-12 (44-56)
- Harris – minus-6 (46-52)
- Casey – plus-7 (43-36)
- McCormick – minus-6 (31-37)
The survey results in this release are based on interviews conducted July 31–August 11, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data in this release represent responses from 920 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 411 Democrats, 378 Republicans and 131 Independents.
The sampling error for this study is +/- 3.8 percentage points when the effect of design weighting is taken into account.
