It was six years ago when an NFL referee Gene Steratore used index card to determine whether the first attempt was scored in the game between the Cowboys and Raiders.
Steratore, born in Uniontown and living in Washington, D.C., is a prime Pennsylvania example of just how close the 2024 presidential race is in the Keystone State.
The the latest Emerson College survey finds a virtual connection between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump in a survey of 1,000 likely voters in the Keystone State.
When asked who they would choose if the election were held today, 481 respondents chose Harris, and the same number shared their preference for Trump. Emerson also asked those who were undecided which way they might lean. Harris finished with a plus-5 net rating, earning 12 additional selections to just seven for Trump.
Respondents were also asked who they “expected to become president after the 2024 elections.” and vice president came in first with 14 responses.
The U.S. Senate candidate continues to tighten up in the race for the Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr lead over the Republican challenger Dave McCormick is currently within the margin of error. Casey received 47.1% support to 45.4% for McCormick with an MOE of 3%.
“Casey leads among voters under 50, 53% to 37%, while McCormick leads among voters over 50, 51% to 43%.” Spencer Kimballnoted the executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Women trail Casey by 11 points, 52% to 41%, while men trail McCormick by eight points, 50% to 42%.”
As of Labor Day, Casey maintained an average lead of 6.3 percentage points, while McCormick rose to 45% for the first time in the last six polls.
Presidential crosstabs
- Men: Trump 52.4% – 44.2% (+8.2)
- Women: Harris 52.4% – 43.6% (+8.8)
- Post-secondary: Harris 55.2% – 44.8% (+10.4)
- No post-secondary education: Trump 60.2% – 39.8% (+20.4)
- 18-29 years: Harris 61.0% – 37.4% (+23.6)
- White: Trump 55.1% – 41.0% (+14.0)
- Black: Harris 89.3% – 7.8% (+81.5)
- Latino/Hispanic: Harris 63.5% – 33.2% (+30.3)
Approval of work
- President Joe Biden: 38% support, 53.8% disapprove (-15.8)
- Governor Josh Shapiro: 47% support, 34.9% disapprove (+12.1)
Favor
- Harris: 49.4% favorable, 50.6% unfavorable (-1.2)
- Trump: 47.6% favorable, 52.4% unfavorable (-4.8)
Various
- Likelihood of voting: 100% very likely
- PA’s most vital problem
- Economy: 49.9%
- Threats to democracy: 12.4%
- Immigration: 9.7%
- Better for personal finances: Trump +6.8%
- Take on fracking in Pennsylvania: Trump +10.6%
The Emerson College Polling/RealClear PA survey was conducted September 27-28, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Pennsylvania is n=1,000. Polls have a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/-3 percentage points. Data sets are weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on a model of likely voters in 2024. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit poll results, and voter registration data.
