Can you pick out one noteworthy moment from the cacophonous Democratic Party game show that featured 10 contestants? You assume. Here we go:
Moderator Lester Holt asked, “Who here would abolish their private health insurance in favor of a government-run plan? It’s just a show of hands.
Elizabeth Warren raised hers.
Uh oh. Warren is a solid front-runner with a good chance of winning the nomination, but politically I seriously doubt that someone who wants to eliminate private health care for 180 million Americans can actually win the general election.
Warren was the only candidate on stage to poll in double digits, pushing Bernie Sanders into second place behind Joe Biden. Her words mattered most. She was also the only person on stage (apart from one percent candidate Bill de Blasio) to call for the abolition of private health insurance – a position she did not articulate during the campaign.
“Look at the business model of an insurance company. The idea is to collect as many dollars as possible in premiums and pay out as few dollars as possible for your health care. That leaves families having to pay rising premiums, rising co-pays and fighting insurance companies to get the health care doctors say they and their children need. “‘Medicare for all’ solves this problem,” Warren said.
Her position may enhance her chances of being nominated in the party that has been turning left since 2016. Most grassroots Democrats probably won’t mind her criticism of private insurance companies, and many centrist voters on the fence about private insurance have their own grievances about the status system quo.
But in politics you don’t necessarily win prizes for having great intentions or for formulating the most rational arguments. Warren acknowledged there are “political reasons” not to support government health care, but didn’t say what they were.
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So I’ll do it.
The enormous majority of Americans like their private health insurance and don’t want it taken away. Indeed, voters generally don’t like it when politicians try to take something away from them.
It’s true that most Americans supposedly support the vague concept of “Medicare for All,” but whenever they encounter objections, the story is different. According to the nonpartisan Kaiser Tracking Poll, “Medicare for All” has support of 56 to 42 percent.
But when Americans are told the program could eliminate private health insurance — as Bernie Sanders’ program envisions, phasing out private insurance within four years — most people take flight. The numbers suddenly turn around: 37 percent yes, 58 percent no.
Imagine what Trump and the Republicans would have done with this if the nomination had gone to Warren or Sanders. And they wouldn’t even have to lie about it. Warren is confident in her powers of persuasion, but it’s strenuous to predict that she’ll win the argument for government-run health care.
Rightly or wrongly, “socialism” is an straightforward word to demagogue, and Americans (especially those over 45, the most reliable voters) simply don’t like it.
They may be blind to the socialist initiatives they have long enjoyed (from Social Security to the interstate highway system), but that is simply the political reality. That’s why candidate Kamala Harris withdrew her previous support for ending private health insurance.
Amy Klobuchar, who hasn’t made much of a splash in the race so far, said on stage Wednesday night: “I’m just worried that within four years, half of America will be kicked off health insurance.”
For the Trump campaign and the Republican Party, it’s the perfect video clip – confirmation from the Democrat that Warren will put “half of America” at risk.
Joe Biden’s campaign contrasts sharply with Warren’s campaign, which supports a more gradual approach to health reform. The statement said: “The Biden administration will give every American the right to choose a public option like Medicare.” (Clever employ of “right to choose”).
So we got some clarity last night, at least on the most essential health care issue: government coverage vs. incremental reform. Should Democrats boldly move left or exercise prudent moderation?
Elizabeth Warren wowed the liberal base, but she may have ramped up the GOP’s primary attack ad and made her less electable.
Opinion writer Dick Polman is a national political columnist for WHYY in Philadelphia and writer-in-residence at the University of Pennsylvania. Send him an email at [email protected]. His work appears on Mondays on the Capital-Star magazine’s comments page.
