Senator-elect Dave McCormick was the first GOP candidate for governor or U.S. Senate to win Pennsylvania since 2016. And he did it by following the path set by President-elect Donald Trump.
Like Trump’s team, McCormick’s campaign was a concerted effort to mobilize low-propensity voters, especially those who were ready to support Trump but were otherwise turned off by other GOP candidates, NOTUS informed. McCormick’s significant focus on this voting bloc contrasts with previous GOP candidates, who have historically taken turnout among their base for granted.
The McCormick campaign’s attempt to reach dissatisfied voters was highlighted by several key efforts. Two weeks before Election Day, McCormick shot an ad at West Point, his alma mater, to showcase his military service and reach highly desirable apolitical voters who might be distrustful of politicians.
For disengaged voters far from metropolitan areas, the campaign also implemented a door-to-door field program to identify these individuals so McCormick’s team could send text messages, mailers and advertise on rural radio stations. The campaign even aired a litany of ads during football matches.
Those efforts, combined with other tactics — such as a statewide bus tour and ads designed to get ahead of Democratic talking points — helped McCormick become the only GOP candidate to win a swing state Senate race this year
McCormick ultimately unseated three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (R-Pa.), a surprising result in a Senate race seen across the country.
While the end of Casey’s 18-year tenure came as a shock to many, his popularity had been quietly withering for months, leaving him vulnerable to the significant financial backing provided by McCormick, a former hedge fund executive.
In previous races, the senior senator achieved victories in years when Democratic turnout was high – in 2006 amid growing opposition to the Iraq War, former President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election and during the blue wave of the 2018 midterm elections.
In 2012, Casey overtook Obama by 1.7 percentage points among Pennsylvania voters, and his margin of victory over GOP Senate candidate Tom Smith was 3.7 percentage points greater than Obama’s over Republican Mitt Romney.
But Casey did not outperform Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, as Democratic observers had hoped, even if Trump won Pennsylvania. Casey received 48.6% of the statewide vote, while Harris won 48.66%.
These results did not assist Casey, whom McCormick consistently associated with Harris and who was seeking re-election in a political climate that was much more favorable to Trump than expected. Trump won Pennsylvania by more votes than any other GOP candidate in statewide history, increasing his support in rural areas and destroying Harris’ base in suburban and urban areas. McCormick, who made sure to show up at almost every Trump rally in the state, rode on his coattails, although he underperformed Trump slightly in the state, getting 48.82% to Trump’s 50.37%.
Last month, Casey told The Inquirer that he owed his defeat to Trump’s popularity in Pennsylvania. He also didn’t underestimate the huge role that super PAC money played in the race.
Keystone Renewal PAC was the only outside spending group specifically dedicated to the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, spending approximately $54 million. As the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, McCormick was able to apply his contacts to gain significant financial backing fueled by Wall Street billionaires. Many of Keystone Renewal’s donors knew McCormick personally.
“I think that combination was hard to overcome,” Casey said last month. “It’s the end of a chapter, but it was a blessing for me to serve. … You always want to win again, but it wasn’t meant to be.
