To have Representative Rob Bresnahan Has his stock trading escapades caught up with him?
According to Cook Political Reportthe answer is yes.
The self-described “preeminent forecaster and producer of federal and state election rankings” pushed the NEPA contest between Bresnahan (R-08) and the Democrat Paige Cognetti from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up”, organizing three coin toss competitions in the US House of Representatives “America’s Swing State”.
Analyst Erin Covey, who appeared on the PoliticsPA podcast “Voices of Reason” in early 2026, he said that while the district had trended toward the Republican Party in recent cycles, the noise surrounding the freshman congressman’s stock trading had an impact on the race.
“New Rep. Rob Bresnahan’s stock investments have followed him throughout the cycle, giving Democrats a powerful line of attack in a district that trails Republican trends but is highly relevant this cycle,” he writes.
“His problems in 2026 were largely of his own making,” Covey continued. “Despite promising to support a ban on stock trading by members of Congress, Bresnahan was recognized by Capitol Trades as one of the most frequent traders in Congress. From February to January of last year, he conducted 650 trades, including selling stock in Medicaid providers shortly before the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill.”
And given the fact that this is a midterm election and the party in power has lost seats in Congress over the years, this is not good news for Republicans.
“The political environment for House Republicans continues to look bleak,” Covey said. “Even before President Donald Trump “The approval rating bottomed out in the face of soaring gas prices and an unpopular war with Iran, special elections and off-year elections in which Democrats had a significant enthusiasm advantage and Republicans were five to six points behind the overall vote share.”
Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton, reiterated that running for Congress was not in her bingo plans, but Bresnahan urged her to act.
“I had no plans to run for Congress, but I could not stand by and watch as Congressman Rob Bresnahan abused our trust by gambling on the stock market while in office, even though he promised during the campaign that he would ban trading in congressional stock,” Cognetti said. “Hardworking Northeastern Pennsylvanians are tired of self-serving politicians who sell out our community to make a quick buck. That’s why our message of rooting out corruption and building a government that works as hard as the people it serves resonates in every corner of our community.”
The Cook Political Report also said that “Cognetti’s allies also believe her political brand in Scranton – she ran as an independent against the local Democratic machine in 2019 – will help her win over the subset of Trump voters she will need to flip this seat.”
“Political opportunist Paige Cognetti has proven once again that she will say and do anything to get elected,” an NRCC spokesman said Reilly Richardson. “Voters know Cognetti has shamelessly supported Biden’s disastrous open borders agenda and will hold her accountable in November.”
Bresnahan just won the endorsement of Operations Engineers Local 542, which represents thousands of workers across Pennsylvania responsible for building roads, bridges, energy infrastructure and major construction projects.
“Rob Bresnahan understands the value of hard work because he has lived it. As a former union contractor, he knows what it means to run a business, get paid, work with a skilled workforce, and pursue projects that build and sustain our communities,” said IUOE Local 542 Vice President James Gittens. “In return for our support of our workforce, industry experience and ongoing support for collective bargaining, International Union of Operating Engineers Local 542 is proud to endorse Rob Bresnahan for Congress.”
The 8th Congressional District seat joins two others in the commonwealth in the CPR waiver category – PA-07 currently held by Representative Ryan Mackenzie and PA-10 in possession Rep. Scott Perry. If this trend continues, Pennsylvania could decide which party takes control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2027.
According to the latest findings, which came after the ratings changed in several races, CPR concluded that of the 435 seats in the House there are 189 Solid Democrats, 10 Likely Democrats, 14 Lean Democrats, 17 Toss Up, 3 Lean Republicans, 17 Likely Republicans and 185 Solid Republicans.
