In 2022, Democrats regained control of the Pennsylvania House, a slim majority that has survived several special elections since then. Now the party is staring at a tantalizingly close lead in the state Senate, where Republicans have 28 seats to Democrats’ 22. If they manage to win a majority or even achieve a tie in the Senate, Democrats would have a voting trifecta in state government, with control of the governor’s office and both houses of the Assembly. General.
“There are certainly opportunities, but also, more importantly, there is momentum,” Senate Minority Leader Jay Costa (D-Allegheny) told the Capital-Star. “And I think the winds are blowing in our favor in terms of our ability to flip the Senate.”
Democrats need to flip three seats to break a tie and four to gain a majority. However, even a tie gives Democrats an advantage in the upper house because in the event of a deadlock, Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis would cast the tie-breaking vote.
The Pennsylvania Senate Republican Campaign Committee said in a statement to the Capital-Star that defending the majority is its top priority.
“We are working diligently to highlight the achievements of our incumbent Republican senators while contrasting them with the Democratic agenda that is resulting in higher inflation and increased crime,” the PA SRCC said. “We have completed the recruitment of an outstanding pipeline of candidates across the Commonwealth to not only defend our open seats, but also attack competitive positions. In November, voters will have a clear choice. And when the dust settles, we are confident they will keep the state Senate in Republican hands.”
Abhi Rahman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) told the Capital-Star that since half of the Senate will be up for re-election this cycle and the other half next, the organization’s goal is to make gains this cycle. “We believe the Pa. Senate. for one of our ‘multi-cycle’ plays,” Rahman said.
This multi-pronged strategy includes “setting the stage for a new Democratic trifecta,” as would be the case in Pennsylvania, and using special elections. That’s something Pennsylvania Democrats did recently in the House of Representatives when Rep. Jim Prokopiak (D-Bucks) was elected elected in February following the resignation of MP John Galloway, who had been elected as a district judge.
“Seizing opportunities this year will best prepare Democrats to flip the chamber in 2026, when the other half of the seats will be at stake,” says DLCC strategic note.
But Costa says Democrats have identified three seats they believe they can flip and one where the party will have to play defense. He added that Democrats plan to be on the offensive more often than they were two years ago.
If they succeed, it will be the first time Democrats have controlled the Senate in more than 30 years.
Here are the Pennsylvania legislative districts that will hold primary elections in April
Senate District 15, Costa, which covers much of Dauphin County, was flipped in 2022, giving Democrats “a unique opportunity to succeed there,” Costa said. Incumbent Republican Senator John DiSanto is not seeking re-election, and State Representative Patty Kim (D-Dauphin): announced her candidacy in October.
Harrisburg pastor Alvin Q. Taylor is also seeking the Democratic nomination in PA-15. Dauphin County Treasurer Nick DiFrancesco and Army veteran Ken Stambaugh are seeking the Republican Party’s nomination for the position.
45th Senate DistrictAllegheny County is also an open seat, but Democrats will have to play defense in this case, following an announcement by Sen. Jim Brewster (D-McKeesport) retired at the end of the year.
State Republican Nick Pisciottano (D-Allegheny) and Makenzie White, a licensed social worker and community organizer, are seeking the party’s nomination. On the Republican side, security company owner Jennifer Ditini and Kami Stulginskas of Munhall are running for the GOP nomination.
Costa said it’s also another seat where redistricting favors Democrats, after conservative Westmoreland County was removed from the district.
Senate District 37 in Allegheny County is another district where Costa is positive, although redistricting does not necessarily guarantee a Democratic victory. Since 2012, the parties have changed four times. Incumbent GOP Sen. Devlin Robinson flipped in 2020 and is seeking re-election. His Democratic rival is teacher Nicole Ruscitto of Jefferson Hills.
Senate District 49, in Erie County, switched to the Republican side when Sen. Dan Laughlin was elected in 2016 and re-elected in 2020. Two Democrats are seeking to run against Laughlin; Erie County Democratic Party Chairman Jim Wertz announced his campaign in December; and Selena King, former staffer of U.S. Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa), former chairwoman of the Erie County Democratic Party Black Caucus
Costa said these seats represent Democrats’ “path to 25” in the state Senate. “I think some of the momentum we’re building comes from the House, and some of it comes from the redistricting we’ve done and the creation of more Democratic seats,” he said. “This puts us in position to succeed when it happens.”
The legislature returns to session on April 8. The Pennsylvania primary election will be held on April 23.
