Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania in new poll

U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania) leads Republican rival David McCormick by 9 percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll from The Inquirer, The New York Times and Siena College.

Casey, a three-term incumbent, has maintained a significant lead in polls throughout the high-profile race that could decide control of the Senate. But the new poll also gives reason to believe the race could tighten considerably before Election Day.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Casey, while 40% supported McCormick. Despite his powerful lead, Casey still did not win a majority, leaving the door open for McCormick if the Republican can convince a vast majority of undecided voters to support him.

» READ MORE: How Senator Bob Casey Became Democrats’ Messenger on ‘Greed’ — One of the Party’s Biggest Issues Ahead of November

Casey, whose father was governor of Pennsylvania, is already well-known to voters. McCormick, a former hedge fund executive who is running for office for a second time, could have room to grow as more voters start paying attention to the race.

Lancaster County resident Connor Michael Lutter, 27, is the type of voter McCormick will need to convince if he wants the race to be more competitive. Lutter, who serves in the Air Force, plans to vote for former President Donald Trump this year but told the pollster he has not made up his mind about the Senate race.

Lutter said he typically votes Republican and supports candidates who support lower taxes and oppose U.S. involvement in foreign wars, particularly in Ukraine.

“I definitely won’t want to vote for the left just because it currently seems like a party of war,” Lutter said.

The poll included 1,082 likely Pennsylvania voters who were contacted by phone between Sept. 11 and 16. The margin of error was 2.8 percentage points.

The previous edition of the same poll, conducted from April 28 to May 7, showed Casey leading 46% to 41%.

In a new poll, voters were asked which Senate candidate they trusted more on a variety of policy issues. Casey scored well on issues that were key to the race.

The incumbent had a 6-point lead when voters were asked who they trusted on the economy, a surprising result given that Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by 4 percentage points on that question in the same survey. Casey’s favorability on the issue could be a sign that his efforts to portray inflation as a symptom of corporate profit — “greedflation,” as he calls it — are registering with voters.

Casey also had an 8-point lead on the opioid crisis, a key issue in the race, and a 19-point lead on abortion, not surprising in a year when Democrats are trying to draw attention to Trump’s moves to curtail reproductive rights.

» READ MORE: Why Investing in a Chinese Fentanyl Company Has Become an Issue in Pennsylvania’s Senate Race

The only issue on which McCormick took a position was immigration, with 42% of those surveyed saying they trusted Republicans more, while 41% said they trusted Casey.

Despite the pervasive advertising, the race has generated less buzz than the 2022 election for Pennsylvania’s second Senate seat, which featured a much larger field of high-profile names. That year, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) defeated celebrity physician Mehmet Oz, who narrowly defeated McCormick in the GOP primary after being endorsed by Trump.

Trump endorsed McCormick this year.

Mark Woodhead, 45, is a disabled veteran and registered independent who lives in Lycoming County and plans to vote for Trump in the presidential race this year. Woodhead said he has seen the Casey and McCormick ads but needs more time to do “due diligence” on the candidates.

» READ MORE: Dave McCormick lives partly in Connecticut but campaigns throughout Pennsylvania.

So far, he’s not excited about McCormick, in vast part because he’s seen political ads attacking McCormick for living in Connecticut for years before he ran for Senate. McCormick ended his Connecticut lease in June after winning the April primary.

“I don’t hear good things. If political ads are true in any way, shape or form, he doesn’t sound like a good candidate,” said Woodhead, who responded to the survey. “I hear he lives in Connecticut. That’s literally all I know.”

Woodhead said he has heard little about Casey, even though the incumbent senator has served in the Senate since 2007. For Woodhead, that is “usually a good thing” because politicians who often make headlines often do so for the wrong reasons.

“It doesn’t make much noise, so I hardly heard anything,” he said, “but I pay attention.”