By Adolfo Flores, Capital & Main
As November approaches, Republican candidates and their supporters are spending tens of millions of dollars on anti-immigration messaging, paying for television ads that portray the situation at the southern border as an unfolding crisis or even an invasion.
In July, GOP candidates and right-wing groups spent more than $37 million on anti-immigration ads in swing and border states, bringing their annual ad bill to more than $117 million and far more than the $15 million Democrats have spent on immigration-focused messaging this year, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Republican Party ad spending nearly doubled in the second quarter and peaked in July, when it funded 114 anti-immigration television ads during federal, state and local elections in 11 key battleground states and Montana.
The ads largely focus on crime, the border wall and what is perceived as an augment in migrants at the border. Keywords such as “border,” “crime,” “wall” and “fentanyl” are frequently used in the messages, according to an AdImpact analysis commissioned by the advocacy group Immigration Hub.
In one ad, former President Trump’s campaign criticizes Vice President Kamala Harris, saying the Democratic presidential candidate has failed as the country’s “border czar,” citing millions of illegal border crossings, a quarter of a million American deaths from fentanyl and “violent migrant crimes.” Another ad attacks President Biden for reversing Trump’s border policies, which it says have fueled an augment in illegal immigration, increased crime and strained public resources, while positioning Trump as the only candidate who can secure the border and “stop the invasion of illegal immigrants.”
Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, an organization that tracks and analyzes campaign ads, said Republicans see immigration as an issue that matters to voters, especially in areas where perceptions of a crisis at the border can be used to sway opinions.
“Republicans think they can make money on politics,” Ridout said.
He added that while immigration has been a sensitive issue for years, it may no longer have as much impact on voters’ daily lives as more personal issues such as inflation or health care.
“It’s not inflation — I see it every day when I’m at the grocery store or getting gas,” Ridout said. “Immigration is something much less direct.”
Overall, voters see the economy, inflation and protecting democracy as the most crucial issues in the election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll. But immigration remains a top concern for many Republican voters, according to the Chicago Council Survey, with 69% of Republicans saying immigration will be a significant factor in deciding who to vote for in this year’s presidential election, compared to 41% of independents and 26% of Democrats.
The anti-immigration ads are part of a larger narrative the GOP is trying to build, in which the perception of chaos at the border is directly linked to a larger sense of disorder across the country, Ridout said. He said it fits into a radical effort by Republicans to portray the party as the solution to a problem they say Democrats have ignored.
While Republicans have aggressively pushed the anti-immigration narrative, Democrats, including Harris, have been relatively hushed — perhaps intentionally, as they seek to shift attention to issues that have traditionally “been Democratic property,” such as health care, education and Social Security, Ridout said.
Harris went on the attack, talking about her accomplishments at the border and efforts to combat the flow of fentanyl.
“Harris would prefer that in this election we all think about reproductive health, not immigration,” Ridout said.
For years, Republicans have used immigration as a central theme in their political campaigns, particularly in states like Arizona and Nevada, where ads have portrayed the border as lawless and ungovernable to win voters by highlighting what the GOP sees as Democrats’ failures on immigration, said Beatriz Lopez, deputy director of the Immigration Hub.
That hands-off approach has begun to change as the election approaches, Lopez said, adding that Democrats are starting to be more proactive in the immigration debate. While she might feel more comfortable focusing on reproductive rights or inflation, Harris has begun to “go on the offensive,” talking about her record at the border and her efforts to combat the flow of fentanyl, Lopez said.
In August, Harris released an ad highlighting her past as a prosecutor in California and saying she had fought cartels and put gang members behind bars for smuggling weapons and drugs into the U.S.
“As vice president, she supported the toughest border enforcement bill in decades,” the ad reads. “And as president, she will hire thousands more border agents and crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking. Fixing the border is hard. And so is Kamala Harris.”
During a speech on the final night of the Democratic National Convention, Harris promised to reintroduce a bipartisan border bill that Republicans defeated in the Senate earlier this year after Trump urged senators to reject it — a move Democrats viewed as a political stunt.
‘Let’s Fight for This’: Harris Promises to Chart a New Path Forward and Defeat Trump
“I know we can live up to our proud heritage as a nation of immigrants and reform our broken immigration system,” Harris said at the DNC. “We can create a legitimate path to citizenship and secure our border.”
For years, Democrats have allowed Republicans to portray themselves as lax on immigration, Lopez said, adding that advocates like her organization have urged Democrats to talk about their record on immigration and explain their vision for fixing the nation’s immigration system, including addressing the border and expanding legal paths to citizenship for farmworkers, people who entered the country as minors and others without status.
“As we move forward on this issue, it will be especially important for Vice President Harris to continue to expand her arguments on this issue,” Lopez said.
Jeremy Hughes, a Republican strategist who has worked in Nevada, said the augment in ad spending reflects the party’s belief that immigration is a critical issue for voters in swing states. Hughes said the ads are not just aimed at convincing voters that immigration is a critical issue, but also at presenting the GOP’s position on border security as a robust alternative to what they see as Democratic failures.
In addition to Arizona and Nevada, the ads aired in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, Montana and Wisconsin.
“Immigration continues to be a factor in the number of undecided voters,” Hughes said.
GOP ads often employ loaded terms like “border,” “crime” and “wall” to link crime to migrants at the border, despite evidence to the contrary. A 2020 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that native-born U.S. citizens are more than twice as likely to be arrested for violent crimes as undocumented immigrants.
It also found that native-born citizens are two and a half times more likely to be arrested for drug offenses and more than four times more likely to be arrested for property crimes than undocumented immigrants. Additionally, a National Bureau of Economic Research study found that immigrants are significantly less likely to be incarcerated than white or black native-born people.
Hughes said the language used in Republican Party ads is carefully chosen to appeal to voters, especially in states where the election outcome is uncertain.
“Campaigns don’t run ads that aren’t effective,” Hughes said. “If you see those phrases and those words in ads, it’s because the campaign has research and focus groups that say those ads will move voters in our direction.”
