Four years ago, the prospect of competitive presidential primaries led to some relatively forceful voter registration reports for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. However, as 2020 progressed, those primaries never came, and summer and fall registration reports were much more encouraging for the Republican Party in Pennsylvania. Nevertheless, Biden ultimately able to reclaim the Keystone State in November.
Pennsylvania Democrats can therefore take some comfort in the fact that recent voter registration trends can only tell us so much about how they will evaluate future election outcomes.
But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the overwhelming nature of these numbers. Because I started first voter registration tracking trends in pennsylvania republicans I generally ate to the Democrats’ historic advantage. This is the first time I can recall the GOP posting gains in all 67 counties across the commonwealth.
What’s more, the comparison to the last presidential cycle is particularly stark: In May 2020, during the voter registration deadline delayed due to COVID-19, the Democratic lead was Phone number +803,427. It now stands at 397,241. During that time, 122,639 more voters registered to vote, and Democrats lost 195,867 registrants while Republicans gained 210,319. Over the course of the entire period, the number of independent voters who chose no affiliation or another party increased by 108,187.
Even the change since then last october is significant. At that time, the Democratic lead was 445,890. During that time, Democrats lost 4,560 registrants, while Republicans gained 44,089 and Independents gained 26,233. So let’s dig deeper into the regional divisions to dig deeper into this movement.
Quick note: I’m exploring our changing electoral trends by tracking the gains one party has amassed in registrations over the other party. For example, R+500 means the Republican Party gained a net 500 more registered voters in that county than the Democratic Party during that period, while D+500 indicates the reverse.
Central
- Blair: R+577
- Bradford: R+408
- Cameron: R+19
- Center: R+286
- Clear field: R+523
- Clinton: R+308
- Columbia: R+411
- Canadian deer: R+244
- Hunting: R+218
- Juniata: R+126
- Lycoming: R+396
- McKean: R+185
- Mifflin: R+117
- Installation: R+112
- North Tumberland: R+438
- Potter: R+134
- Codes: R+168
- Sullivan: R+4
- Tioga: R+251
- Union: R+147
Traditionally the Democratic Party is recruiting novel voters in Centre County thanks to the enrollment at Penn State University. In addition, recently, Bucknell University has Driven by Dem Improvement in Union County as well. But not this time, because Republicans’ novel registrations outnumbered the opposition.
Northeast
- Coal: R+417
- Lackawanna: +1,258 PLN
- Lucerne: PLN+2221
- Monroe: R+756
- Pike: R+337
- Schuylkill: R+919
- Susquehanna: R+210
- Wayne: R+232
- Wyoming: R+156
Since the bottom I’m practically in love with Hillary Clinton in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties, I watched the Northeast closely. Luzerne, the seat of Wilkes-Barre, was red has been fashionable for some time now – though Josh Shapiro I still managed to win here —and it now seems possible that registered Republicans will overtake Democrats before November.
Despite such setbacks, Lackawanna will remain a majority-Democratic county, and native Joe Biden will need to perform well here to retain Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.
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North West
- Spicy: R+272
- Crawford: R+370
- Eric: R+1,354
- Forest: R+42
- Jefferson: R+213
- Mercer: R+751
- Wenango: R+266
- Warren: R+299
Even though Erie and Lackawanna counties are on opposite ends of the Commonwealth, they have much in common. Both are long-standing Democratic, working-class counties with Republican leanings. Gaining supportand Biden probably needs to improve his performance in both of them.
But unlike Lackawanna, Lake County has seen a surge in Democratic support. at the beginning of 2021when the Democrats experienced a bit of a bounce back after January 6th. This may indicate that Biden’s Campaign Message on Democracy will find resonance here.
South Central
- Adams: R+553
- Bedford: R+310
- Cumberland: R+457
- Dolphin: R+578
- Franklin: R+697
- Fulton: R+144
- Lancaster: +1,507 PLN
- Lebanon: R+461
- Perry: R+256
- York: R+2,283
I like to call it South Central Pennsylvania’s “Big Red Machine”because Lancaster and York are traditionally most populated red counties in the Commonwealth. Recently, however, the Democrats have I have experienced some growth hereleaving Westmoreland as the favorite to take the GOP Red Crown. It turns out, however, that York County isn’t ready to give up that title just yet.
Meanwhile, Republicans even managed to gain in Dauphin and Cumberland, which, thanks to Harrisburg and its surrounding suburbs, is one of the Pennsylvania Areas That Are Most Democratizing. This time, however, there was no room for a blue oasis.
Southeast
- Tags: PLN+1,862
- Dollars: PLN+2,414
- Chester: R+681
- Delaware: R+187
- Lehigh: +1,506 PLN
- Montgomery: R+988
- Northampton: +1328 PLN
- Philadelphia: +3,548 PLN
This Bucks number is the most eye-catching of them all. Back to May 2020Democrats had a lead of 15,552 registrations here, but that has now fallen to a precarious 1,710. It appears that while white collar voters in Central Bucks abandoned the Republican Party during the Trump years, working-class voters in Lower Bucks are only now abandoning it their ancestral democratic home.
As for the rest of SEPA, there is a reason for that Biden has visited Philadelphia more than any other city Beyond Wilmington: He knows how crucial collar counties were to his 2020 victory. Biden improved on Hillary’s lead here almost 105,000 votesenough to change things on their own. That’s why, more than anywhere else, it’s crucial that Democrats take the initiative here for the rest of this year.
SW
- Allegheny: R+2,916
- Armstrong: R+447
- Beaver: R+1,264
- Butler: R+970
- Cambria: +1,072 PLN
- Fayette: R+1,198
- Green: R+236
- Indiana: R+470
- Lawrence: R+703
- Somerset: R+448
- Washington: R+1,483
- West Pomeranian: +2,537 PLN
Since my last update back in OctoberBeaver County has gone from From Democratic Pluralism to Republican Pluralismwhich makes him the last of Southwest counties other than Allegheny to make a change. At this point, ancestors of Appalachian Democrats are now practically extinct.
The question now is how many more votes from this region Trump could potentially gather. After all, Trump In many of these counties, there was an improvement in 2020but it wasn’t enough to make up for losses in other parts of the state. All of which speaks to our overall conundrum: Are these numbers indicators of delays in past moves, or an indication of the future?
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Voter registrations nearly matched actual voting. In 66 of PA’s 67 counties, the party with the most registrations is the same party that won that county in Presidential Elections 2020The only exception is Luzerne, where Democrats maintaining margin 2746which at this rate will most likely disappear by October, the deadline for the general election.
So by winning in districts where there is no chance of winning, like Erie and Northampton remain critical, the differences in the southeastern and southwestern counties will certainly prove to be a deciding factor in November.
In recent state elections, Democratic candidates such as Tom Wolf, Jan Fetterman and especially Josh Shapiro have amassed huge gains in and around Philadelphia. Can Biden match those margins, or will Trump inspire low-propensity voters to the polls?
It’s a similar story in the Southwest. Has Trump reached his limit there, or will he find even more support?
Independents are also on the rise. I know I’ve been guilty of binary thinking (which is kind of the point of this whole series). But today, a significant portion of Democratic and Republican voters prefer not to classify themselves in this way. Which way will these voters fall, and more importantly, by what margin?
At the end, while the 2020 competition enjoyed record attendanceenthusiasm is this time much more subduedand we don’t really know who would benefit from such a scenario.
All the more reason we should investigate every bit of information we can before election day, even if that is all we can find out before the actual votes are cast.
