The rematch is set.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump secured their parties’ nominations for president by winning state primaries on Tuesday, giving voters the same choice they saw in the 2020 election.
Both candidates are unpopular with the general electorate, but neither of them faced earnest obstacles to the nomination in the states where the presidential nominating elections were held.
Early polls ahead of November’s election show Trump with a slight lead national level and in key swing States.
Control of both houses of Congress will also be at stake in November. Democrats are at a disadvantage in defending their majority in the U.S. Senate, while Republicans’ efforts to maintain their slim majority in the House of Representatives will hinge on several key races.
Biden, who defeated Trump in his 2020 reelection bid, won Democratic primaries in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state on Tuesday, winning 2,107 delegates. Democratic National Committee rules required a candidate to win 1,968 delegates to win the nomination.
Democrats will formally nominate Biden at their national convention in Chicago, Aug. 19-22.
Trump won Republican primaries and caucuses in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington on Tuesday, winning 1,241 delegates so far. He needed 1,215 to secure the nomination.
Republicans will nominate him for the presidential election for the third time in a row at their convention in Milwaukee, which will be held July 15-18.
The candidates won the nominations after only half of the states held nominating contests. The process, which Republicans began with the Iowa primary on Jan. 15 and Democrats with the first official primary in South Carolina in February, is designed to last months because only a handful of states typically hold contests in a given week.
To win in November, candidates are now focusing on a handful of fluctuating states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – which will award 93 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win election to the White House.
Biden: ‘Freedom and democracy are at risk’
In his announcement as the presumptive Democratic nominee, Biden referenced his successful 2020 campaign against Trump. He reminded voters that he views the 2020 race as a “battle for the soul of the nation.”
He said the country was “in the process of returning to normal” and described the upcoming rematch with Trump as another key turning point for the country’s democratic future, as in his State of the Union Address.
“Amid this progress, we face a sobering reality: freedom and democracy are under threat here at home in ways they have not been since the Civil War,” he said. “Donald Trump is waging a campaign of resentment, revenge and retaliation that threatens the very idea of America.”
Biden in Pennsylvania: America Must Decide Whether Democracy Remains Its Sacred Cause
Biden, whose disapproval rating is 18 percentage points higher than his approval rating, according to an average compiled by FiveThirtyEightwill probably want to focus on the race around Trump, whose net ratings are also in negative double digits.
Trump issued his own statement on his social media platform Truth Social, praising a “UNITED and STRONG” Republican Party and criticizing Biden for his handling of inflation and immigration, as well as the Justice Department’s prosecution of the former president.
“We are now, under Crooked Joe Biden, a third world country that is using the Injustice System to go after their political opponent, ME!” Trump wrote. “But fear not, we will not fail, we will take back our once great country, we will put AMERICA FIRST and we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN – BIGGER THAN EVER BEFORE.”
Trump’s choice of his next vice presidential candidate will likely come in the weeks leading up to the July convention. Trump and his vice president, Mike Pence, have had a public feud over Trump’s handling of his 2020 election defeat and his conduct leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Trump pressured Pence to reject the certification of the electoral votes, which Pence had no authority to do, and intervened for several hours as a crowd of his supporters, some chanting “Hang Mike Pence,” caused a riot at the Capitol.
Legal problems are not an obstacle to the Republican Party nomination
Trump has been charged with four felonies, including two related to the Capitol attack, each of which is unprecedented for a major party candidate.
But even together, the series of legal challenges did not deter GOP voters, who clearly supported him in early states. He led in polls in the months leading up to the primary, then won by a narrow margin in a multi-candidate field in Iowaforcing most of the remaining candidates to withdraw.
In the second competition, New Hampshire’s Primary Electionwon a head-to-head race that was seen as most favorable to his last rival, former UN ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
After winning Nevada and Michigan, Trump also defeated Haley by more than 20 percentage points in her home state on February 24.
Haley won the March 3 primary in the District of Columbia, becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential primary, and the Vermont primary two days later, on Super Tuesdaywhen 865 delegates were at stake in all those states.
She fell out race after Super Tuesday, but did not endorse Trump.
Trump Tells NRA Loyalists in Harrisburg: ‘Nobody’s Going to Touch Your Firearms’
With Trump holding a majority of delegates, the upcoming GOP presidential primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio next week will be a mere formality, though some states will also hold congressional primaries.
Biden not giving up despite concerns about Gaza
Biden straightforward win The Democratic primary state is South Carolina, which the party picked this cycle to replace Iowa and launch its first national primary, in part because of Biden’s strength among the state’s black Democratic electorate.
More than 95% of Democrats in South Carolina supported Biden in the Feb. 3 election, and nearly 90% voted for him later that week. in the Nevada primary.
Neither Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota nor author Marianne Williamson defeated Biden in any state.
But Muslim voters and progressive party members have sent a separate message, starting with Michigan’s third official party election in slow February.
More than 100,000 Michigan Democrats, or 13.2% of primary voters, chose the “undecided” option rather than vote for Biden or any of the other declared candidates. The protest vote, which stripped the incumbent of two of the state’s 117 delegates, was recognized as a reprimand for Biden Israel’s conduct in the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
A week later, on Super Tuesday, 18% Minnesota Democrats “undecideds” were elected, reserving 11 of the 75 delegates in the race.
The dissatisfaction with Biden did not significantly lend a hand Phillips, who had little chance of winning, with the moderate member of the House of Representatives suspending his campaign after receiving less than 8% of the vote in his home state.
Phillips’ ineffectiveness against Biden was evident from the first, unofficial Democratic primary in New Hampshire.
After the Granite State refused to renounce its primary status despite the Democratic National Committee’s choice of South Carolina for the seat, Biden did not campaign there or even appear on the ballot, but he still won 65 percent of the vote as an independent to Phillips’ 20 percent.
Congress Control
To maintain their 51-49 advantage in the U.S. Senate, including the three independent senators associated with them for organizational purposes, Democrats have virtually no margin for error.
The seat of outgoing West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin III will almost certainly go to the state’s Republican governor, Jim Justice.
Assuming West Virginia flips, Democrats would need to win the remaining races, several of which are in Republican-leaning states. Virtually no Republican incumbents are considered in danger of losing their seats.
Inside Elections, an election analysis site, looks at Democratic senators Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who are both ineligible to win re-election.
Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is not seeking re-election, and the race in that state between U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, and Republican Kari Lake is also considered uncertain.
Democratic Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Jacky Rosen of Nevada are considered slight favorites in their re-election race, while Democrats are slightly favored to retain the Michigan seat currently held by retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow.
Neither party has a solid advantage in the House, and various forecasters list about 20 uncertain races that will decide control. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to regain control of the chamber.
