About 8 in 10 Democrats happy with Harris’ radical shift after Biden’s withdrawal: AP-NORC poll

WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris She has energized Democrats early in her candidacy, a modern poll shows, and positive sentiment has intensified among many groups, including some key Democratic constituencies that were previously particularly skeptical of President Joe Biden.

About 8 in 10 Democrats said they would be somewhat or very pleased if Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, according to the poll. Associated Press-NORC Public Affairs Research Centerwhich was carried out after Biden withdrew from the race.

IN separate AP-NORC studytaken before Biden’s withdrawal, but after his debate against former Republican president Donald Trumponly about 4 in 10 Democrats said they were somewhat or very satisfied that he would be the likely Democratic presidential nominee.

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The Democrats’ rapidly changing views in such a compact time underscore how quickly the party—from rank and file voters Down elected representatives – has rallied behind Harris as its standard-bearer, motivated by a modern face at the top of the ticket and a modern belief in the party’s chances of defeating Trump in November.

Gary Hines, a Philadelphia Democrat, said he wasn’t particularly impressed with Harris’ first presidential run, but now she’s shown that “she’s up to the task, she can get the job done, she’s proven that she’s run a strong campaign to this point, and maybe on a larger scale, she’s someone who can beat Donald Trump.” All of that has ignited enthusiasm in Hines that wasn’t there when Biden was still in the race, he said.

“I really want to go out and maybe knock on doors, which I would never do,” said Hines, 68. “It really turns me on.”

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Americans are also more likely to say Harris would make a good president than they were in July, a shift largely driven by Democrats. But they still see a tough fight ahead: A majority of U.S. adults, 56%, say that if Trump and Harris are their party’s nominees in the November general election, Trump has a better chance of winning.

Lauren Schulman, a Democrat from Pompano Beach, Florida, said she admires Biden and what he has accomplished during his presidency. But she said that with him at the top of the candidate list, “I was just afraid we were going to lose.”

Harris, on the other hand, “was a bright, shining star,” said Schulman, 66, noting that the vice president is “smart and younger, and even looks younger than she is. That creates such a huge contrast with Trump.”

Enthusiasm for Harris Grows — Especially Compared to Biden

About 7 in 10 black adults and about half of Latino adults would be happy with Harris as the Democratic nominee — a marked raise from early July, when about half of black adults and 15% of Latino adults were happy with Biden as the expected Democratic nominee. (The poll did not include enough Asian adults to analyze their responses separately.)

The share of newborn adults (those under 45) who say they would be happy with Harris’ nomination, about 4 in 10, is higher than the 17% who said in July they were happy with Biden.

Bryan Seigler, a Democrat from Raleigh, North Carolina, praised Harris’ “broad reach” and drew a contrast that Democrats had not been able to draw before.

“Donald Trump is an old guy now,” Seigler, 36, said.

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Harris’ overall approval rating has risen slightly from 39%, a new poll shows at the beginning of summer — before the debate — to 46% now. Democrats’ views of Harris have also shifted in a slightly more positive direction. Eight in 10 Democrats have a favorable view of Harris, up slightly from about 7 in 10 in early June.

Harris would be a historic candidate — would be the first woman to win the presidential election, as well as the first black woman, the first South Asian American and the first Asian American woman. About 4 in 10 Americans say it would be good for the country to elect a woman or person of color as president. Even more — about 6 in 10 when asked to elect a person of color and about half of those asked to elect a woman — say it doesn’t matter.

But most Democrats believe it would be beneficial for the country to elect a woman or person of color.

Views on Biden’s decision

A majority of Americans, 54%, say they have heard or read a lot about Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race. About three-quarters of Americans approve of his decision to withdraw from the Democratic presidential nomination, including majorities of Democrats and Republicans.

For many Democrats, concerns about his age This impacted his public speaking and his ability to campaign effectively against Trump.

“When I watched the debate, you could just tell his cognitive abilities were barely there,” said Julian Castañeda, a Democrat from Pocatello, Idaho. “He had trouble forming sentences, and a lot of his answers, I couldn’t even understand what he was saying. At his age, he was supposed to be standing on the sidelines.”

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Biden’s decision to endorse Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate is a bit more controversial, with about half of adult Americans supporting her, though Democrats overwhelmingly approve. There are similar levels of support for Biden’s decision to serve out the rest of his presidential term.

His withdrawal from the race hasn’t changed Americans’ overall view of Biden much. About 4 in 10 Americans approve of Biden’s handling of his presidency, a number that’s roughly in line with the past two years. Biden’s approval ratings are similar to where they were before he dropped out, with about 4 in 10 adults and about three-quarters of Democrats holding a favorable view.

Americans predict a tough electoral fight for Harris

While Harris’ modern campaign has reason for optimism, the vice president faces an opponent who is better known nationally and has a reputation for steadfast support.

A majority of Americans believe Trump has an advantage in the November election. A majority of U.S. adults say that if Trump and Harris are the candidates, Trump has a better chance of winning. About 9 in 10 Republicans believe Trump has a better chance of becoming president, while only about 7 in 10 Democrats say that about Harris.

Schulman believes Harris has a better chance of winning this fall. But she added: “Democrats, we are a real, nervous, paranoid bunch these days.”

The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.