Candidates across the board for Governor of New Jersey are struggling with name recognition, leaving the field open – and crowded – less than five months ago basic Elections, fresh poll numbers suggest.
Emerson College Survey Conducted Jan. 18-21 with New York-based PIX11, Hill shows more than half of registered Democrats and nearly half of registered Republicans are undecided in the governor’s race. State state will take place on June 10.
The poll found a particularly tight race among Democrats.
Of the 437 people who said they planned to vote in the Democratic Primary, 10% said they supported U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, 8% said they supported former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, 8% said they supported Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 7% said they support U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, 7% said they support former state senator Stephen Sweeney, and 4% said they supported Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.
An overwhelming 56% said they were undecided.
This data shows that Democrats in the race are effectively tied within a +/- 4.6% polling margin of error at a point in the race when polls typically reflect little more than candidate name recognition.
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Of the 334 Republicans who said they planned to vote in the primary, Jack Ciattarelli, who ran against Gov. Phi Murphy in 2021 and ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in 2017, had the highest level of support among respondents in his party with 26 % . Conservative radio host Bill Spadea took it up, but also stood out among respondents with 13% support.
Behind them, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, Roger Bacon, Hans Herberg, former state Sen. Edward Durr, former Burlington City Mayor James Fazzone and Robert Canfield all had support in the single digits, and 47% were undecided.
This isn’t necessarily surprising since Ciattarelli ran to the seat twice and Spadea speaks in air territory. But it also shows the factions of the Republican Party, with Spadea being a staunch Trump ally and Ciattarelli trying to cast a wider net within the party.
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The numbers should not be taken as representative of voters in this year’s primary, but rather an early measure of name recognition in the race, New Jersey pollsters said.
That’s in part because 77% of the 1,000 respondents said they planned to vote in the gubernatorial primary, which Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University’s Guidance Institute, said is likely far from reality. Even with a more competitive primary than usual this year, turnout is expected to be below 20%.
“You’re almost looking for a needle in a haystack when you look for gubernatorial primary voters because so few of our voters come out and participate,” Murray said.
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Name recognition can go a long way in a crowded field. But the split support shows that candidates are pulling from different bases where they are known, and revitalizing their specific factions to turn out could make an impact. Murray said if the field remains so crowded, a candidate could win with about a third of the vote.
“These candidates are really starting with low name recognition across the state, and they’re going to have to come up with ways to make the nomination,” he said.
It’s also early in the race for voters, especially those weary of the tumultuous presidential race, said Ashley Koning, director of Rutgers’ Eagleton Center for the Public Interest.
“I think there’s just a lot more time and a lot more name recognition that needs to be built for each of these candidates, and a lot more communication of positions and policies for each of these candidates to make them look to voters,” Koning Koning said. “And generally, you know, really gathering interest in the election itself.”
