Before the elections, several headlines suggested that union voters abandoned the Democratic Party in favor of Donald Trump. And although Trump did win the November 5 presidential election with the support of many rank-and-file union members, he he didn’t win all trade union voters. What’s more, Steve Rosenthal, who has worked as an electoral strategist in the labor movement for over 40 years, believes the political coin could flip again as early as 2026.
Former political director of the AFL-CIO, which he helped lead revive political influence of the Labor Party, Rosenthal focuses on engaging trade union members and working-class voters. He is currently the president of Organizing Group, a political consulting firm that works with unions to lend a hand them gain votes and win campaigns. The company is operational In the Unionvoter mobilization program that this year reached 1.5 million mostly white, working-class voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as in Ohio.
Rosenthal believes that with the loss of Kamala Harris, the labor movement needs to start preparing now for the anti-worker changes that could come from a second Trump administration, as well as the next election.
This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Capital & Main: I might as well ask the question everyone is asking about the election: What happened?
Steve Rosenthal: For me, the most telling numbers came from Voting for AP vote. Voters who rated the economy as excellent or good – 36% of the electorate – voted for Harris by a vote of 82 to 17. Those who said the economy was neither very good nor needy – 63% of the electorate – voted for Trump by a vote of 69 to 29. If you go back to 2020, [the poll results were] almost exactly the opposite – 43% said the economy was excellent or good [and they] voted for Trump by a vote of 81 to 18. The 57% of the electorate who said the economy was not that good or bad voted for Biden by a vote of 77 to 21.
As many people noticed, the economy was definitely the most essential thing for voters. If they thought things were going well, they voted for the incumbent [party in] Kamala Harris, and if they thought the economy was not doing well, they voted for the change candidate, which was Trump. For many voters, economic issues – pardon the expression – trump fascism, democracy and choice – the cornerstone of Harris’ campaign.
I think for some voters [arguments on] these issues were less credible because they had survived four years of Trump. For me this is the best summary. I don’t think there will be any major reshuffles [or evidence of] long-term conservative change.
When I was political director of the AFL-CIO from 1996 to 2002, part of my rap was that the only white working-class voters who voted Democratic were in unions. This was true then and is largely true today. And union voting has actually gotten a little worse. For years, not enough attention was paid to the decline in union membership and, therefore, union voters and what that meant for Democrats. I’m glad people are talking about Democrats needing to become the party of working people again.
During the union vote, there was a lot of discussion in the media about union members migrating to Trump, even though the Biden administration is doing so much for unions.
First, union members voted for Harris in quite gigantic numbers. Through the three states of the blue wall, [there was a] significant achievements of union members.
In Pennsylvania, unionists made up 18% of the electorate. So almost one in five votes cast came from union households, which voted 52 to 47 for Harris, better than Biden’s vote in 2020, [when] Biden lost union households to Trump 49 to 50 in Pennsylvania. So she actually did better.
In Wisconsin, Kamala Harris won union voters 53 to 46 — better than Clinton in 2016 and not as well as Biden in 2020, but still has a nine-point lead among union voters in the state. In Michigan, Harris won [union voters] 55 to 44 – not as good as Biden in 2020, but much better than Clinton in 2016.
During his first visit to Pittsburgh in 2024, Biden focused on unions and steel
Trump has diluted union votes somewhat, but not by significant numbers. The media rushing to judgment before the election based on some polls suggesting that labor has abandoned the Democrats is simply wrong.
What do you think about unions like the Teamsters not supporting Harris?
As has been well reported, the Teamsters remained neutral. Likewise firefighters. But there were 50 unions that supported Kamala Harris.
Drivers released survey that found this out [nearly] 60% of their members supported Trump and [indicated] that’s why they decided stay neutral. In over 40 years of my work, I have seen many surveys conducted among trade union members. Unions may start with their members losing 10, 15 or 20 points.
But then you launch your program and communicate with your members – in this case, for example, point out that Trump supports right-to-work and that Trump led one of the most rabidly anti-union administrations in the country’s history. And then compare that to Harris’ record and the fact that Harris cast casting vote on legislation this saved the pensions of hundreds of thousands of union members, including vehicle drivers.
Teamsters won’t support either candidate in the presidential race, but some Pennsylvanians support Harris
It was inexcusable that the union did not take the opportunity to communicate with its members and explain to them what was at stake in this election. Because if they did, they would move those numbers. No labor leader could look at these two candidates and with any degree of honesty suggest that either of them would not be better for working people.
Do you have any thoughts on how to reconcile the state of the economy with how people perceive the state of the economy? It seems that people’s personal experiences do not necessarily match what the headlines say about the economy.
I think that’s part of why the Harris campaign recklessly promoted some of the data on falling inflation, because people didn’t feel it.
There is an element about the message and the messenger. It is not that the party no longer stands for workers; the point is that the party leadership no longer engages in trenches with workers. Their achievements are being paid off in part in brief order because there is a huge degree of cynicism towards both parties and politics in general. Putting out a billion dollars in TV ads targeting working people and trying to tell them “We stand with you” – after 30 years of NAFTA and other trade agreements and situations [with] corporations and not get into the trenches with employees?
There is a difference between what the party does and fights for and what people feel, see and understand.
By any measure, Biden was the most pro-union president in our lifetime. This must be extremely offensive to President Biden and Vice President Harris [and others in the administration]who have done so much for trade unions and workers over the last few years, we heard that the party had abandoned them.
You said Democrats need to be in the trenches with workers. What does it look like?
I think these are walking picket lines. I think you can see that in union halls. I think it’s about gathering groups of working people and sitting with them and listening to them – holding town hall meetings across the county or state and hearing what people have to say. This means uniting with working people and allowing them to see who is really on their side.
Over the next few years, it intends to stand firm against the fierce attack on a range of workers’ rights. There will be attacks on [the Occupational Safety and Health Administration]overtime pay, the National Labor Relations Board, which funds the Fair Labor Standards Act, and federal employee unions.
What was your approach to mobilizing union and working class voters?
With our In Union voter engagement program, we keep voters informed throughout the year – we don’t just start talking to them around the election. We give them tips on how their families save money, we give them information about unions on the front lines, we give them ways to hold politicians accountable and fight back. And then we gradually start communicating about the elections themselves. We never make recommendations, but we provide people with good, reliable information and well-documented quotes.
How do you see this work developing over the next few years?
As crazy as it sounds, it’s not too early to start [work for] 2026 in the Blue Wall states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There will be open gubernatorial races in two states, a [Gov. Josh] Shapiro will run for re-election in Pennsylvania. And then – it sounds silly to me to talk about 2028, but every four years the labor movement has the potential to play a significant role in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
We must therefore not wait until October 2026 or September 2028 and start communicating with union members. [about] protection of employees’ rights. People want to get involved. Union members will be elated to call. They will talk to their elected officials. They will go to town hall meetings. They are more democratic than most voters because they have experience [democracy] in their relationships [when] they elect local union officials and vote on contracts.
We have to start now. The stakes are too high for those working in the modern administration not to start engaging people in January.
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