Vice President Kamala Harris recently overtook former President Donald Trump Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll published on Saturday, a few days before the elections scheduled for November 5.
The results are a surprising development for a state that was largely written off as an effortless victory for Trump. He won the 2016 and 2020 Iowa presidential elections. The latest Iowa poll shows Harris leading with 47% of the likely vote and Trump with 44%, according to the Register.
The survey was conducted October 28–31 by Selzer & Co. and including responses from 808 likely Iowa voters, has a plus/minus margin of error. 3.4 percentage points.
While Harris’ lead is within the margin of error, it is a significant change from previous Iowa polls. In September, Trump led the Iowa poll 47% to Harris’ 43%. Trump had support of 50% of likely voters in Iowa in June when President Joe Biden was expected to be the Democratic presidential nominee.
Women, independents are turning to Harris
According to the Register, the biggest shift in support for Harris was among Iowa women – especially women who identify as independent voters and those 65 and older. More independent likely voters as a whole currently support Harris at 46% and Trump at 39%, even though the demographics have favored Trump in all previous Iowa polls.
In a September poll, independent women favored Harris, with 40% supporting her and 35% supporting Trump. In the latest poll, that lead increased to 57% of independent women supporting Harris and 29% supporting Trump.
More independent men still favor Trump over Harris (47% to 37%).
While likely voters 65 and older also support Harris as a demographic, 63% of senior-level women support the vice president compared to 28% who support Trump – a margin of more than 2 to 1. More older men also support Harris, but by a margin 2 percentage points, ranging from 47% to 45%.
Iowa Republicans supported Trump in swing states
Iowa Republicans spent time on the campaign trail praising Trump’s popularity in the state and expecting the former president to win Iowa for a third straight election – U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst and U.S. Republican Ashley Hinson, Iowa Republicans, traveled to swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia rally voters in recent weeks, and Ernst said Iowa was “in the cards” for Trump.
Although both Harris and Trump spent most of their time in key swing states leading up to the election, Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Rita Hart told reporters Saturday that the poll results show Iowa is a state Democrats can win in the upcoming election.
“We put in the hard work and it’s paying off,” Hart said. “We educate our constituents, recruit volunteers, listen to the concerns of friends and neighbors, and recognize that Iowans are looking for better leadership. The fact that Vice President Harris currently leads Donald Trump in the latest Des Moines Register poll is obviously very exciting to us.”
Iowa Republican Party Chairman Calls Poll ‘Outlier’
However, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann questioned the accuracy of the results, comparing the Des Moines Register poll results to those published by Emerson College earlier Saturday which showed Trump with a lead of 53% over Harris of 43%.
“The Des Moines Register is a poll that clearly deviates from the norm,” Kaufmann said in a statement. “The Emerson College release today is a much better reflection of Iowa’s actual electorate and does so with much greater transparency in methodology.”
House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst argued that the Iowa poll was respected and should not be thrown out just because it did not produce favorable results for one party.
“I was in their shoes the Saturday night before Election Day when the Iowa polls came out and they didn’t look the way we wanted them to,” Konfrst said. “And they cannot believe Ann Seltzer, one of the gold standard pollsters in the country, in 2020 and not 2024.”
The poll also found that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent presidential candidate who remains on the Iowa ballot despite the end of the campaign, still has the support of 3% of likely voters. Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver polled less than 1%. Another 1% of respondents said they would vote for someone else, 3% said they weren’t sure who to support, and 2% said they didn’t want to reveal who they supported.
While the poll showed Harris taking a favorable stance Tuesday, Hart said it’s crucial to note that the Iowa Poll results are not Election Day results. Konfrst said the poll is a welcome boost that will add “energy, enthusiasm and momentum” to Democratic voters and organizers ahead of Tuesday.
“We still have three days until the election, so remember this is just a poll and what really matters is that Iowans show up and vote,” Hart said.
Democrats say the poll supports the case for more national aid
In the final days before the election, Konfrst said she and other Democrats were in talks about the poll with the national party and Democratic-supporting organizations, hoping to gain support and proxy visits before Election Day.
“We will be asking as many people as possible to become deputies, but ultimately we know it is the hard work of volunteers, our candidates up and down the ballot, congressional and party candidates, and all of our partners here in Iowa who do this hard work.” said Confrst. “So whether it’s a surrogate or not, we think we’re going to have a better night for Kamala Harris and the Democrats than expected on Tuesday.”
Hart also said Iowa’s decision in the 2024 presidential election could have earnest consequences for the future of the Iowa Democratic caucuses. Iowa was ousted from its first-in-the-nation seat in the 2024 Democratic presidential nominating cycle and released the results of its Super Tuesday caucus in which it endorsed this year’s Biden. The nominating calendar will be up for discussion again in 2028, and Hart said the Nov. 5 results will have a key impact on Iowa Democrats’ argument to return to earlier in future elections.
“When the election is over, we will be having this conversation,” Hart said. “The better we do here in November, the better the case we will be able to make. … The bottom line is I hope this shows the rest of the country that Iowa is a good barometer for good leadership.”
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