Good morning Wednesday, dear seekers.
It won’t be long before the General Assembly is controlled by Republicans and Democrats Wolf Administration begin developing the details of the budget that will govern Pennsylvania for the rest of the 2020-2021 fiscal year.
As you remember, in May both sides had lowered their batons long enough agree to a $28.5 billion interim spending plan that would provide five months of funding for most state agencies while also providing a full year of funding for K-12 education across the state.
This week, policy analysts in The Pew Charitable Trusts analyzed tax volatility in every state when the country goes through such a severe economic downturn that it closely resembles a recession (though as Fortune points outtechnically it isn’t).
This variability, like Pew’s as analysts note, it’s better or worse for different states, depending on what their individual tax mixes look like. To arrive at their volatility scores, the analysts measured “the deviation in year-over-year percentage changes between fiscal year 2000 and 2019, based on a standard deviation calculation. A low score means that revenue levels were similar from year to year, and a high score means that revenues increased or decreased more dramatically.”
Generally, Pew’s analysts found that “50-state tax revenues had a volatility of 4.96 over the 20 years ending in fiscal year 2019, slightly lower than the previous year’s volatility of 5.01.
According to Pewthis means that “total tax revenues across states have typically ranged 4.96 percentage points above or below the overall upward trend. Tax revenues were more volatile than the national benchmark in 29 states and less volatile in 21.”
Below is an overview of the relevant nationwide results and a breakdown of Pennsylvania’s results.
Overall volatility: According to. 3.8 for the Keystone State Pew.
Pennsylvania Sales Taxes: “Sales tax revenues had a volatility of 3.6 and accounted for an average of 27.4 percent of total tax revenues over the past decade,” Pew analysis found.
Pennsylvania income taxes: “Personal income tax revenues showed a volatility of 5.1 and accounted for an average of 31.4 percent of total tax revenues over the past decade,” Pew analysis found.
Pennsylvania corporate taxes: “Corporate income tax revenues had a volatility of 15.4 and over the last decade represented on average 6.3% of total tax revenues,” according to the study Pew.
According to Pew, some national trends:
- “The greatest volatility occurred in Alaska (36.9 percentage points), North Dakota (16.4) and Wyoming (13.3), all natural resource-dependent economies that rely heavily on severance tax revenues.
- “The lowest variability occurred in three states: South Dakota (2.7), Arkansas (2.9) and Kentucky (2.9). Each of these states relies on relatively stable tax streams for more than half of its income – sales in South Dakota and sales and personal income in Arkansas and Kentucky.
- “Volatility scores increased in 24 states for the 20-year period ending in fiscal year 2019 compared to results based on the period from fiscal year 1999 to 2018, although many of the increases were small enough to be hidden by rounding. The largest increases were seen in New Mexico and Utah. The increase in New Mexico was due to increases in severance and sales taxes, and in Utah, increases in personal income taxes and sales taxes,” Pew analysis found.
- “Corporate income tax revenues grew more than any other tax stream in 17 of the 20 states where it was the primary tax. Volatility scores for this tax ranged from 13.0 in Tennessee to 53.7 in Alaska.” Pew excellent.
If there’s one radiant spot for Pennsylvania, it’s its current fiscal year revenues they are ahead of the curve. This will be useful as a country is to fill a huge budget hole — without the aid from Congress that is currently available unable to reach an agreement on the coronavirus relief package, which includes a modern injection of aid for states.
“Revenue collections at this stage are above estimates due to better-than-expected economic activity in the first quarter of the fiscal year,” he added. Treasury Secretary Dan Hassell – he said in a statement on October 2. “The Department will continue to closely monitor the situation to ensure that the Governor and members of the General Assembly receive the latest information as it becomes available.”
Our stuff.
As Democrats try to flip the state House of Representatives this fall, an older Democrat downloaded 600 thousand dollars from a school choice donor who wants to stop them, Stephen Caruso reports.
In the face of the registration boom, Regulators are considering the proposals by two modern cybernetics charter schools, Elizabeth Hardison reports.
And with rent reforms stalled in the General Assembly, Governor Tom Wolf announced a bypass, Hardison also reports.
On our comments page this morning, an industry veteran says it’s long past time to provide direct service providers for people with intellectual disabilities the support they need – and deserve. AND Columbia University scholar explains the influence of a handful of super-rich donors elections 2020.
Elsewhere.
As infections rise in Pa. President Donald Trump There was a barnstorming incident in Johnstown on Tuesday nightin which he claimed without evidence to be immune to the virus and made other fantastic promises. The Tribune-Democrat has a story.
Questioning profiles of the Pennsylvania resident and former second lady Jill Biden.
AND enhance in coronavirus cases in western Pennsylvania is not surprising, experts say Grandstand overview.
Public health officials have listed 14 counties to watch out for as infections rise, PennLive reports.
Above 2.6 million Pennsylvania voters requested absentee ballots The Associated Press reports (via Morning call).
The Luzerne County Prosecutor’s Office will not file charges man who posted a note containing a “swastika”. state Libertine. Aaron Kaufer’s, R-Luzerneentrance door, Voice of Citizens reports. Buyer he is Jewish.
Here’s your Instagram of the Day in #Philadelphia:
Philadelphia authorities and protest leaders agreed to the terms liquidate the homeless camp on Ben Franklin Parkway, WHYY-FM reports.
The youngest students from Philadelphia were able to return to the classroom after Thanksgiving, Key intersection reports.
New Morning consultation vote shows Joe Biden with a 52-44 percent lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, PoliticsPA reports.
Marijuana companies do not have access to conventional insurance funds or federal disaster funds If looking for reliefreports Stateline.org.
The policy focuses on eight states this will decide the election. You won’t be shocked to learn that Pennsylvania is the most vital among them.
Donald Trump “incompetence does not justify his authoritarianism” Jonathan Chait writes for NYMag Interview.
What’s going on.
The House Democratic Policy Committee is organizing an online session today at 2 p.m.
Wolf watch.
Governor Tom Wolf has news at 11:30 at PEMA to talk about the fall surge in Covid-19 cases and how the state intends to deal with them.
What’s Going On (Naked Political Edition).
8 a.m.: Breakfast for Senator Dave Argall
17:30: Party for House Speaker Bryan Cutler
Drive around the track and give it your all and you can win a staggering $26,000 today – thanks to asking for the maximum amount of $25,000 at Cutler event.
You say it’s your birthday.
My best wishes are sent this morning to CBS-21 producer Christina Maiselwho is celebrating today. Congratulations and have a nice day.
Heavy rotation.
It would be tough for us to ever choose our favorite Elbow song. But this one is definitely in the top five. From ‘Build a rocket, boys“, that’s it “Jesus is a Rochdale girl.” If you’ve ever been young and in love, this one will hit you right in the heart.
Wednesday free football link.
Football Association President Greg Clarke condemned the adjustment program known as “The Big Picture” as a takeover of power by large clubs, Guardian reports.
And now you’re up to date.
