F&M Poll: Presidential Race Still Within Margin of Error; McCormick Closes Deficit Against Casey

While it is still within the margin of error, Vice President Kamala Harris continued her streak of sturdy poll results against the former president Donald Trump In the latest study by Franklin & Marshall College.

The poll showed Harris with a three-point lead over Trump, 49%-46%, in a multi-candidate race that included third-party and partisan voters. A previous F&M poll from early August also gave the vice president a three-point lead over the former president, 46%-43%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls at six percent. He has since withdrawn from the contest. The three points that separate the candidates are within the poll’s 4.1 percent margin of error.

Since delayed July, Harris has never had an approval rating below 48 percent in the Keystone State, while Trump has only topped that mark three times in the last eight polls.

“Turnout is undoubtedly a key variable in this race, and the split between regular and less frequent voters will be a deciding factor: Harris leads among regular voters, 51% to 47%, but Trump leads among less frequent voters, 47% to 46%,” he wrote. Berwood Yostdirector of the Center for Public Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.

F&M also conducted a poll on the US Senate duel between the Democratic Party candidates Bob Casey Jr. and a republican Dave McCormick and found the three-term incumbent with a 48-40 percent lead in the race. McCormick was closing in on the 12-point deficit (48-36 percent) he faced in the latest Center for Public Opinion poll.

Casey has a five-point lead (48.2%-43.1%) in an average of the last five Pennsylvania polls compiled by PoliticsPA. This is the third time in the last six polls that he has topped 48%, while McCormick has fallen brief of 40% for the fourth time in the last nine.

Few Pennsylvania voters are splitting their ballots in the presidential and U.S. Senate races, Yost wrote. Almost half (47%) of the voters are Harris-Casey voters, while two in five (39%) are Trump-McCormick voters. There are tiny percentages of Trump-Casey (2%) and Trump-Other (2%) voters, and virtually no Harris-McCormick or Harris-Other voters.

Presidential

• He best understands the concerns of average Americans
• The most prepared to cope with the economy
• The closest thing to your view on abortion is same-sex marriage
• You’d better get on with your job as commander in chief
• To be president, you need character and good judgment.
• The most truthful and trustworthy
• Were Trump’s actions to stay in power after the 2020 election stern crimes?
  • Yes, stern crimes 56%
  • No, it is not a stern crime 39%

US Senate

• Are you sure who you will vote for?
  • Sure 88%
  • 11% still haven’t made a decision
• The most vital thing when deciding who to support
  • I agree with the policy in general 9%
  • Economic policy 9%

Work efficiency

• Governor Josh Shapiro
  • Excellent 27%, Good 23%, Fair 26%, Poor 16%
  • The overall number of “Excellent-Good” (50%) has fallen since April, when it peaked at 54%
• President Joe Biden
  • Excellent 14%, Good 21%, Fair 13%, Poor 50%
  • The overall rating of “Excellent-Good” (35%) has remained stable since April.
  • As of August 2022, this rate is over 50%
• Senator Bob Casey Jr.
  • Excellent 15%, Good 22%, Fair 21%, Poor 27%
  • Overall rating of “Excellent-Good” (37%), up from 39% in April
  • The rate has been the lowest since at least August 2007.

Favor

• Biden -13 (43-56)
• Harris-3 (48-51)
• Advantage -9 (45-54)
• Casper +2 (41-39)
• McCormick-14 (30-44)

Enthusiasm

• Are you planning to vote in November?
  • Sure 92%, Probably 4%, Fifty-fifty 2%
• Interested in the 2024 elections
  • Very interested 72%
  • Rather interested 21%
• On a scale of 10, how much effort will you put into voting?
  • I will do my best to vote (10 out of 10) 82%
• Do you know who you will vote for in the presidential election?
  • Sure 93%
  • Still wondering 7%

Firearm

• Do you own a weapon?
• I support the creation of more gun control laws.
  • Yes, 60% | No, 38%
    • “Yes” has been above 60% in each of the last four surveys (maximum 62%)

Miscarriage

• Your opinion on abortion
  • 38%, legal under all circumstances
  • 54%, Legal in some circumstances
  • 7%, illegal under any circumstances
    • The 92% of people who believe abortion should be legal in all/some circumstances is the highest rate since at least March 2021.

Various

• Vote for Donald Trump
  • 73% for Trump
  • 27% against Harris
• Vote for Harris
  • 56% for Harris
  • 41% against Trump
• U.S. House of Representatives General Ballot
  • Democrats 47%, Republicans 42%
• Republicans: Trump or Traditional
  • Trump Republican 48%, Traditional Republican 44%
• Democrats: Progressive or Centrist
  • Centrist 41%, Progressive 40%

• Destination Pennsylvania
  • 41% right direction, 48% wrong path
  • Right Director down 2% since August, up 13% since September 2022
• The most vital problem in PA
  • 28%, Economy, Finance; 9%, Government, Politicians
  • Economy up 5% from August, up 7% from September 2022
• Is your financial situation better than it was a year ago??
  • 14% better, 46% worse, $40 about the same
  • Better by 4%, worse by 7% compared to September 2022.
• Will you be in a better or worse situation in a year??
  • 24% better, 15% worse, 36% the same
  • 8% better, 21% worse from September 2022

• The amount of economic and military aid to Israel
  • 45% too much, 23% the right amount, 20% too little
• The amount of development and humanitarian aid for Palestinians
  • 32% too much, 17% the right amount, 31% too little
• Support for Ukraine in the war with Russia
  • 31% provide more support to Ukraine; 30% maintain current level; 19% provide less support; 15% withdraw all support
• Limit
  • 48% say more resources should be devoted to controlling illegal immigration at the U.S. border; 26% say resources should be devoted to addressing the root causes that cause people to leave

• Primary news source
  • Internet (excluding social media) 30%, cable TV 28%, network TV 16%, social media 10%, daily newspapers 6%
• The cable network relied on most
  • Fox News 42%, MSNBC 20%, CNN 17%, NewsMax 8%

The data in this release represent the responses of 890 registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 399 Democrats, 366 Republicans and 125 independents.

The sampling error for this study is +/- 4.1 percentage points when design effects due to weighting are taken into account. The sampling error for questions based on subgroups is larger.