Kamala Harris narrowly leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania voter poll

Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential race in Pennsylvania, a lead that is being fueled by a surge in support among juvenile voters and voters of color, particularly in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia.

A Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll conducted shortly after the debate showed Harris almost 4 point advantagewithin the margin of statistical error and significantly higher than President Joe Biden’s result in May among key Democratic voting blocs.

While Pennsylvania voters viewed her more favorably than Trump and saw Harris as the winner of the recent presidential debate, the poll shows that a portion of the Pennsylvania electorate sees Harris as “too liberal,” and a third of voters want more information about her two months before Election Day.

The race remains incredibly close in the state where Trump and Harris have spent the most time — and money.

Pennsylvania Poll was conducted from Sept. 11-16, a week of favorable news for Harris after the debate. The results in the key swing state are slightly better for Harris than a national poll conducted by the NYT/Siena College during the same period — which showed the race deadlocked, 47% to 47%.

“I think Kamala Harris is more focused on uniting the country,” said Boronne Gao, a 24-year-old Democrat from West Philadelphia who did not vote in 2020. “And then abortion is a huge factor. I just align with a lot of her views and policies more than Donald Trump’s.”

Harris won back votes from juvenile and nonwhite voters — especially in Philadelphia.

Harris is doing significantly better among juvenile voters and black voters than Biden did in the state when he was a candidate. Overall, she is polling 5 points higher than Biden was in May, and is doing 12 points better among voters under 29 and 12 points better among black voters.

Nowhere was Harris’ advantage over Biden more evident than in Philadelphia, where 75% of voters expressed support for her, compared with just 54% for Biden in May. While the margin of sampling error around both estimates is wide, the change is statistically significant.

Brianna Pembleton, a 23-year-old Amazon delivery driver in the Yorktown neighborhood, did not vote in 2020 and said she probably would not vote for Biden but plans to support Harris.

“She’s a person of color. And I’m a person of color, so she could make some decisions that would help us more,” Pembleton said.

Philadelphia has historically fueled statewide Democratic victories, though its turnout has been lower than the rest of the state in some recent elections. Harris’ campaign has put a premium on Philadelphia, where she stopped to meet with college student leaders during a campaign swing Tuesday.

While support for Harris has been rising among younger voters, there is a substantial gap between the state’s youngest and oldest voters when it comes to enthusiasm about voting in the election.

“I just don’t think people’s voices are being represented or heard by Democrats at any level,” said Reese G., a 24-year-old voter from Pittsburgh who participated in the poll and asked that his full name not be published. He said he hopes to be convinced to support Harris but has not yet, frustrated by the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza and what he sees as Democrats ignoring or suppressing progressive voices.

“It’s not even apathy toward Democrats. … It’s just outright hostility.”

Gloria Johnson, a retired hairdressing teacher from Philadelphia, said she was enthusiastic about voting for Harris, the first black woman nominated by a major party.

“Our ancestors died for this. I haven’t forgotten that. It’s incredibly important to vote, especially for people of color, and especially for our people, Black Americans,” she said. “This is a different election than any other I’ve been a part of as a voter or as an election official. It looks different, it’s different, it’s different. And we need change.”

Harris was the clear winner of the debate

While both candidates claimed victory in the first and only presidential debate, Pennsylvania voters saw a clear winner: Harris. More than two-thirds of respondents thought Harris did well in the debate, compared with 36% who rated Trump favorably.

It is unclear how far that will take her in a race that has remained stubbornly close even after a wave of post-debate criticism.

“Trump — his arguments seemed more personal and he wasn’t really trying to communicate what he was going to do or stop doing,” Pembleton said. “They just seemed like retorts. And Kamala was actually stating facts.”

“She was very good at speaking directly to people,” said Jessica Storment, a 27-year-old interior designer from Northern Liberties. “She used words like us AND You AND People instead I AND My just like he did.”

Even 43% of registered Republicans and 36% of 2024 Trump voters in the state said Harris did well, though many doubted that would change her mind.

Paul Judd, a 52-year-old modular home dealer from Wyoming County, is a Republican who supports Trump and said he thought Harris did well. But that didn’t change the elementary fact that motivated his vote:

“I don’t like the way things are, and I attribute that to Harris.”

Trump Still Favors Economy, But Harris Has Catched Up

Trump continues to lead on the most essential issue for voters, the economy, which he is expected to handle better than Harris, by a margin of 50% to 46%.

That’s slightly better than Biden’s standing among likely voters in May, but Harris’ improvement is still within the margin of statistical error — meaning she’s still at a disadvantage.

“I literally just got back from the market and it cost me $60, I left with next to nothing,” said Shawn Marrandino, a 41-year-old forklift operator from Philadelphia. Marrandino said his salary of $21 an hour is barely enough to survive.

“If I worked 60 hours a week, I should be able to live. I have a car payment, I have rent, I have alimony. I shouldn’t have to struggle.”

Marrandino, who didn’t vote in 2020, is supporting Trump this year. “I just feel like a guy, he’s more of a force-based guy and nobody’s going to mess with us. You know what I mean?”

Even some of Harris’ supporters are conflicted on the issue. Kristal Bush, a 35-year-old diminutive business owner, said there are things about Trump’s promises to boost business that sound appealing.

“I’m just looking at how some of these loans, you know, are just going to support me,” she said. But ultimately, when Bush looks beyond her circumstances, she thinks Harris “will help people … at least get started moving forward and not just allow the rich to get richer.”

Harris has tried in recent weeks to address concerns about the administration’s economic performance, turning to direct questions about inflation instead of talking about her working-class upbringing and citing plans for small-business loans and tax incentives for first-time homebuyers.

“I like that he talks about middle-class jobs,” said Johnson, a retiree from Philadelphia.

Storment, an interior designer, said she probably would not have voted if Biden had remained the candidate, but she feels appreciated by Harris.

“She seems to care about my generation and wants us to be able to buy a house and afford groceries for the first time,” Storment said.

Harris is also trailing Trump on immigration, the former president’s strongest issue, where 52% of voters trust him, compared with 44% who trust Harris. He also has a 7-point lead on fracking. Harris is favored 59% to 34% on abortion and 52% to 43% on democracy.

Harris is also more popular overall among voters in the state, with 51% rating her favorably, compared with 45% who view Trump.

Trump’s Opportunities in Pennsylvania.

Even though Harris’ support is mighty, the poll results have their limitations — and opportunities for Trump.

Among Pennsylvania voters, more people consider Harris “too liberal or progressive” than those who consider Trump “too conservative.”

“Donald Trump, you know, I feel like he’s on the right track to what America, honestly, represents,” said Kylie Dickens, a 25-year-old shampoo assistant from West Grove who describes herself as a moderate. “Our right to freedom as citizens of the country versus, you know, on the Kamala side, more or less, more, you know, very progressive socially and more leaning toward less freedom as individuals.”

Harris’ support among juvenile voters may be a bit shaky. Only 57% of juvenile voters say they will definitely vote, compared with 68% statewide, and only 80% are confident in their choice in November.

Even though she has served as vice president for four years, about 24% of likely voters said they still needed to learn more about her, while 93% of voters said they had all the information they needed about Trump.

That presents an obstacle two months before the election, but also an opportunity, especially for the 3% of voters in a swing state who say they are undecided.

Daniele Fedonni, a 34-year-old biostatistician at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, is one of those undecided voters, and an example of how Harris’s appeals to the center in tight swing states like Pennsylvania can alienate some progressives. Fedonni voted for Biden in 2020 but was turned off by Harris’s shift to the right on issues like fracking, Medicare for all, immigration and the war in Gaza.

“She’s just trying to push the worst possible campaign in the shortest amount of time possible, being Hillary or Joe Biden,” Fedonni said. “You can’t keep running and be like, ‘My name is not Trump.’”

Camille Baker of the New York Times and Fallon Roth, staff writer, contributed to this article.