Philadelphia’s Collar Counties Could Be Key to Harris’ Win in Pennsylvania

Jenna Richter never planned to move to the suburbs.

“We had no intention of leaving the city. We thought we were going to be, you know, these trendy millennial parents,” she said.

But Richter’s son was born in December 2019. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, she and her husband decided to leave the city for more space and to be closer to family members who could aid with childcare. In 2020, they signed a contract to build a house in East Brandywine Township — 40 miles west of Center City in Chester County — and moved into their current home in November.

“We are city people who moved to the country,” said Richter, 38.

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A liberal Democrat who hates former President Donald Trump, Richter has taken her politics with her. She plans to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris this year.

“I’m pretty liberal and I’m usually pretty outspoken,” Richter said. “I’m disgusted that we even have this Trump situation. I think it’s crazy. I can’t fathom how anyone in their right mind could support someone like that.”

People like Richter have defined the political shift to the left in her current city and across Philadelphia County. East Brandywine represents the kind of community where voters will play a crucial role in determining how strongly southeastern Pennsylvania will lean toward Harris — and whether she wins the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania and the White House.

Once a largely rural community, East Brandywine is becoming a poster child for suburban sprawl as current housing developments pop up on former farmland. The town of about 10,000 is in the Downingtown Area School District and is one of several rapidly growing communities in outlying Chester and Montgomery counties that have seen their populations grow as people move from Philadelphia and more densely populated suburbs in search of lower housing prices, more space and quieter communities.

The population shift hastened political change. In 2012, Republican candidate Mitt Romney won the borough. In 2016, Trump won one of East Brandywine’s three precincts, and the borough was narrowly won by Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Four years later, President Joe Biden won the borough handily.

The changes reflect a broader shift to the left in the Philadelphia suburbs. Chester County has voted for the Democratic candidate in three of the last four presidential elections, after voting for the Republican in all but two since 1880. Democrats first changed the makeup of the county’s Board of Commissioners in 2019, and the party has since further consolidated its power, also flipping city governments and state House seats.

Census data, as well as voting trends, show that growing suburbs like East Brandywine are among the state’s biggest growth areas for Democrats. In other words, nearly all of that population growth has benefited Democrats politically.

» READ MORE: How the population of Philadelphia’s suburbs has changed since 2020

While newcomers have played an essential role in the suburb’s political shift, some moderate Republicans have voted for Democrats or switched parties out of frustration with Trump, whose election in 2016 also inspired some residents to become more politically involved.

How well Democrats can maintain that momentum this year — with Republicans hoping to leverage frustration with the Biden administration to bring back some voters — could be crucial to the outcome of Pennsylvania’s presidential race.

Rapid growth

East Brandywine is barely recognizable from what it was decades ago. The open space that was once farmland is now dotted with brand-new development. State records show it has 6,516 registered voters — and while Republicans still outnumber Democrats, the number of registered Republicans is shrinking while the number of registered Democrats is growing. Republicans make up 43% of registered voters in the borough, while Democrats make up 38% of registered voters.

“Thirty years ago, you had a farm, and on that farm you had one or two residents, and that resident voted. That’s two votes. Now you have 300 residents on that farm, and 300 residents vote,” said Francis Taraschi, a longtime resident and borough supervisor. “They vote in a way that is consistent with their lives and their life experiences. They can come from all walks of life. They can come from all parts of the country.”

Taraschi, who is a Republican, said he is unsure how he will vote in November because he is disillusioned with increasing political polarization.

The Board of Supervisors is comprised entirely of Republicans, despite city leaders shifting their views and voting for Democratic candidates in higher elections — even as Democrats have swept other local governments in recent years.

And borough supervisors were reluctant to discuss national politics. Instead, they said, they are focusing on traffic issues and working on zoning regulations to manage East Brandywine’s growth.

Local officials argued that the day-to-day management of the commune was non-partisan.

“We are not running as R or D — we are running as citizens, residents of East Brandywine,” said Supervisor Carl Croft.

Erin Ward, who moved to the town in 2016, lost the 2021 supervisory election by just 51 votes. A week after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, as she was thinking about ways to get more involved politically, Ward said she received a text message that the Democratic Party was looking for people to run for local office. She raised her hand.

Branch37, She said she didn’t raise national politics when she ran for supervisor, but she noted that people were surprised to learn her party affiliation.

“Democrats largely said, ‘We didn’t realize there were other Democrats here,’” she said.

Democrats see more opportunities as the community becomes younger and population growth continues. Between 2010 and 2020, the borough saw a 44% raise in population, and nearly 900 current housing units were built, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

And construction of apartments continues. Just across the street from the township building, a current 55+ community is under construction.

Changed electorate

The influx of current residents into East Brandywine has made the borough wealthier and more diverse. East Brandywine is still majority white, but in 2020, nearly 10% of the borough’s population was Asian, according to the U.S. Census, up from about 2% Asian in 2010.

Lauren Van Dyk, a 37-year-old Democrat who serves on the borough’s planning commission, grew up in East Brandywine and moved back as an adult. The community, she said, has changed dramatically since she was growing up.

“It’s probably a commune where there wasn’t a lot of disagreement in the past,” she said. “But now there are a lot of different types of people from different backgrounds.”

Van Dyk and her husband, Seth Mathlery, plan to vote for Harris. The couple moved to Downingtown in 2016 and then to East Brandywine in 2022 after their home was flooded by Hurricane Ida. Mathlery, 42, who moved to Chester County from Virginia in 2015, said the first time he voted for a Democrat was when he cast his ballot for Clinton in 2016.

Nancy Gibson, a 68-year-old former Republican committeewoman for the district, said she has tried to tardy the shift to blue — or even stop it. But given the housing market, Gibson wasn’t surprised to see East Brandywine vote for Biden in 2020.

“A lot of people who were working during COVID were working from home, they left the city because they were allowed to stay home and work,” she said, noting that East Brandywine has one of the hottest real estate markets in the area.

Gibson worries that Republicans aren’t motivated enough to do the groundwork needed to stop the bleeding. But he sees a path for the party to motivate people disillusioned with Democratic policies.

Republicans will target voters like John Ewing, a 51-year-old who has lived in nearby East Caln Township since 2009 and plans to vote for Trump. Similarly, Ravinder Earla, a 54-year-old who moved to East Brandywine from Kansas City in 2014, said he was more likely to vote for Trump because the former president had already gotten the job done.

Both men voted for Trump in the previous election.

“I think they have a chance this time,” Ewing said. “It’s hard to hope that someone will take on Trump when he goes on Twitter.”

Earl, who said he is from India, cited the economy as his most essential problem.

“People will say [Trump] He’s very successful in business, I see that too,” Earla said.

But Trump’s personality is sure to pose problems as Republicans try to court voters. Daniel McCarrie, 47, has lived in East Brandywine since 2011 and has no intention of voting for Trump or Harris. He is registered as a Libertarian and voted for the party in 2020.

To win his vote, McCarrie said that: the major party would have to shift toward the center. He wants Democrats to focus more on economic issues and wants Trump to make more policy-oriented decisions rather than “fueling up the right-wing media machine.” He doesn’t expect either to happen.

“I would like to vote for Trump, it would make my life a little easier. Honestly, when I’m in that box, I can change at the last minute and go that way,” McCarrie said. “But, man, he just worries me.”

Adjustment: This article corrects the name of the planning commission on which Lauren Van Dyk serves.