Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and other key seats, August polls show

In the final days of an extraordinary political summer, Vice President Kamala Harris pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and two other key swing states that previously seemed out of Democrats’ reach, according to up-to-date poll of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

The results indicate that the presidential race remains tight, and the dynamics of a contest that many voters found blunt and lifeless have changed dramatically with less than 100 days to go.

Harris is leading Trump by four percentage points, 50% to 46%, among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to up-to-date polls. The survey was conducted among a representative sample of registered voters in the three states from Aug. 5 to 9. The margin of error is 4 to 4.5 percentage points.

The results reflect an election still in progress: Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would be her vice presidential running mate the day after voting began on Aug. 6.

Nevertheless, the results are significant because almost a year of polls showed a tie between Trump and President Joe Biden, with Trump gaining popularity in recent months. New polls reflect a surge in enthusiasm for both parties among a previously jaded electorate: In May, 58% of voters said they were satisfied with the presidential candidates they had to choose from. That percentage rose 15 points in August.

Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46%, with voters citing the economy, abortion and immigration as the top three issues motivating their vote. Most of these likely voters said they believe Trump will do better on the economy and immigration, while Harris will do better on abortion and democracy.

In Pennsylvania, Trump maintains a sturdy lead among white voters without a college degree and voters in the state’s center. Harris leads among nonwhite voters, college-educated white voters and voters in the Greater Philadelphia area and Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, likely voters showed a sturdy preference for Democratic Senator Bob Casey over Republican challenger Dave McCormick, with Casey leading by 14 percentage points.

Since Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris on July 21, Harris has experienced a wave of positive media interestlifted millions of dollarsand packed stadiums across the country. Trump called it “Harris’s Honeymoon” and predicted it would end. The positive sentiment toward Harris is reflected in the latest poll: Her popularity rating rose 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania in last month.

The dust hasn’t settled yet, but the fundamentals of the race are already dramatically different than they were a few months ago. In May, Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points in a two-way race, within the margin of error of a poll of registered voters in a Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll. At the time, voters expressed concerns about the economy and said they were eager for change. Biden’s support in May was waning among younger and nonwhite voters, and Biden’s age was a huge and growing issue.

As Benjamin Duerr, a 29-year-old electrician from Upper Darby who planned to vote for Biden, told The Inquirer at the time: “I think Biden is just incompetent. … But he won’t [expletive] You’re tensing up too much, do you understand?”

In new August polls, a majority of registered voters in three states said Harris, more than Trump, had the temperament to be an effective president, and more said Harris was “smart.” A striking 81% of registered voters said they were enthusiastic about voting.