Pennsylvania is the “American swing state.”
Officially, we prefer “Let Freedom Ring” or, formerly, “You’ve Got A Friend in Pennsylvania.”
But in these 50 great states, there is no state more “shaky” than ours.
So while all the attention is on four congressional races this fall, why am I looking at one where Republicans have a +32 advantage in voter registration? Because he could say more about the fate of the GOP in November than the fate of Bucks County, the Lehigh Valley, NEPA or the Commonwealth Capital Region.
The 9th Congressional District is made up of 12 counties, stretching from the town of Reading in Berks County to Towanda Parish in Bradford County. Representative Dan Meuser has a seat in Congress, winning convincingly by 41 points in 2024 and helping President Donald Trump up to 38 points ahead of the first President Joe Biden able.
Meuser is seeking his fifth term in Washington, and he will face a fresh opponent in the Democratic Party this fall Rachel Wallace. The Pottsville native started out working for the congressman Tim Holden and then worked at the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Senate and the White House, where she was chief of staff of the Office of Management and Budget.
A Tavern Research poll commissioned by Wallace, 38, shows her trailing the Republican incumbent by 25 points, 53-28%. But Meuser, 62, who served as Pennsylvania’s treasury secretary from 2011 to 2015, received 70.5% of the vote two years ago. His opponent in 2024 – Amanda Waldman – received 29.5% of the votes, slightly less than the 30.7% she received in 2022.
The engaging thing is that Wallace, without spending a dollar on paid media and with more than twice Meuser’s cash on hand for the summer, is already crunching Waldman’s numbers from two years ago and has a chance to grow.
Meuser is a staunch Trump supporter and regularly appears on Fox News, where he advocates for the president’s policies and defends his actions. His stance on proposed data centers as well as immigration detention centers in the district has made at times controversial headlines.
The latest Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Trump’s approval ratings are starting to decline. The 47th president has a 29% job approval rating in the commonwealth – a number that has dropped 10 points over the last three months – with a favorability rating of minus-42 (29% favorable, 71% unfavorable).
According to a Tavern poll of 618 likely voters, while Trump was voted for by 64% of voters in the sample in 2024, he is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters, which most likely influences Meuser.
It is crucial to note that none of the major organizations planning congressional races have put this seat in danger from the Republican column. We also do not anticipate that the seat may turn blue. Could Wallace get enraged? Hey, if Cabo Verde can tie the World Cup with pre-tournament favorite Spain, who are we to say no?
But if voters in Berks, Bradford, Columbia, Lebanon, Lucerne, Lycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Schuylkill, Sullivan, Susquehanna and Wyoming counties no longer have their eyes gleaming for Trump and/or Meuser, what could that mean for the Commonwealth’s contested districts? Or throughout the country?
The Cook Political Report identified three congressional races in Pennsylvania as toss-ups – the 7th, 8th and 10th District seats held by Ryan Mackenzie reps, Rob BresnahanAND Scott Perryappropriately. Each of the three 2024 races was decided by no more than 6,000 votes. CPR also ranks Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick 1st District seat in the likely Republican category.
What would it mean for these four incumbents if solid Republicans in the 9th District start looking around?
Sometimes you have to look for a signal through the noise. Wallace’s campaign could say a lot about the GOP’s chances of maintaining a majority in the House of Representatives this fall.
