The 2026 election day has been over a year, but it is never too early to start gathering our susceptibility rankings to congress policies for delegations in Pennsylvania at the USA house.
In the ninth electoral cycle of 2010, PoliticSPA publishes rankings of susceptibility to congress susceptibility to Pennsylvania delegation. This is our first handicaping of the election cycle in 2024; We will periodically update it as the cycle progresses.
We start the 2026 cycle with four places in the “sensitive” category, which is our second highest after “highly sensitive”. The most exposed on our list No. 1 is the Republican four times Rep. Scott Perryand then descending order of Republicans Rep. Ryan MackenzieIN Rob Bresnahan AND Brian Fitzpatrick.
The only democrat on our list so far, Rep. Chris DeluzioIt is in the next category down: “potentially sensitive”, ranking No. 5.
Everyone who is not mentioned among these five is currently considered protected for re -election.
Here is our full summary. Check here updates every few months.
Very sensitive
No races
SENSITIVE
1. 10. District: Scott Perry (R)
Chosen: 2018
Geography: Harrisburg and Envyrions: Dauphin, Cumberland and York Counties
2024 House result: Perry, 50.5%-49.3%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 52.03%-46.82%
Partisan voting index (Cook political report with Amy Walter): R+3
Cash at hand until June 30: $ 1.2 million
Black: 10.7%
Latinos: 10.9%
Asian: 5.0%
Median income: 78 636 USD
A bachelor’s degree or higher: 36.3%
Median value of apartments: $ 258,900
Poverty indicator: 10%
Perry takes up a place that supported Donald Trump in 2024 by about five points, but Congresmen ran about one and a half points behind Trump in the district and defeated the democratic candidate Janelle Stelson Only more than a percentage point.
Perry is a right -wing legislator in a district that has become more purple. Perry presided over the hardline house Freedom Caucus and was examined by the FBI in terms of involvement in Trump’s efforts to overthrow the presidential election in 2020.
In 2026, unlike 2024, Trump will not be voting – and a historically a party that does not control the White House, usually has a tendency to cope in half.
But perhaps the biggest factor that Perry No. 1 on our list is that Stelson works again. Stelson is former Republican which won the six-way basic in 2024. Partly because of her knowledge as a long-term anchor news for the WSAL-TV.
Within the first 48 hours after the announcement of her candidacy in 2026, Stelson Announced $ 500,000. Has the support of key democrats, including popular ones Governor Josh Shapiro. After saying, the Republicans advertise the best quarter of obtaining Perry funds for a year. This race should be challenging for election day.
2. 7. District: Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Chosen: 2024
Geography: Lehigh Valley: First of all, Lehigh and Northampton
2024 House result: Mackenzie, 50.4%-49.4%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 51.07%-47.86%
Partisan voting index (Cook political report with Amy Walter): R+1
Cash at hand until June 30: $ 1.2 million
Black: 5.5%
Latinos: 21.3%
Asian: 3.4%
Median income: 79 206 USD
A bachelor’s degree or higher: 32.5%
Median value of apartments: $ 299 800
Poverty indicator: 11.2%
Mackenzie, a former representative of the state, ran a bit behind Trump in this replaceable district in 2024 Rep. Susan Wild by one percentage point.
This narrow margin of victory caught three democratic candidates for the race: executive director of Northampton and former member of the Council of Northampton Lamont McClure; Former federal prosecutor Ryan CroswellWho He gave up in protest Before proceeding by the Trump administration with the participation of New York Mayor Eric Adams; AND Carol Obando-Distineengineer, teacher, non-profit director and candidate for the first time introduced Through Wild during the campaign.
Three democrats have from 92,000 to USD 254,000 at the bank; Although it is still early in the cycle, every Mackenzie trails in obtaining funds at the moment, and the Republicans are cautiously positive that the basic democratic will be sloppy. Meanwhile, Democrats hope for the negative effects of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” passage at Mackenza, who voted for it.
3. 8. District: Rob Bresnahan (R)
Chosen: 2024
Geography: North -East Pennsylvania: First of all, Lackawanna, Luzerne and Monroe
2024 House result: Bresnahan, 50.7%-49.1%
2024 Presidential result: Trump, 53.85%-45.35%
Partisan voting index (Cook political report with Amy Walter): R+4
Cash at hand until June 30: $ 862,000
Black: 7.1%
Latinos: 15.6%
Asian: 2.1%
Median income: 61 $ 140
A bachelor’s degree or higher: 27.1%
Median value of apartments: $ 220 800
Poverty indicator: 15.3%
Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan, a CEO Construction Before joining the Congress, he threw himself at a democratic place in 2024 Rep. Matt Cartwright In this district of the blue collar.
Like Mackenzie, Bresnahan voted for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”. But he also faced Some negative headlines for his actions as a member of the Congress, even if it is proposed Ban on trade shares legislators.
Before voting for the act of Trump, Bresnahan sold Corp., a healthcare company, which can be hurt by the Medicaid policy. This is not an idle problem for his voters: 27% of the residents of the district consisted in Medicaid, Politico Reported.
Earlier, in April, Bresnahan traded Companies inventories that can be affected by Trump tariffs.
Already the Liberal Group UNRIG our economy has launched Advertising campaign worth $ 1 million Criticizing Bresnahan for voting on the Trump act.
The key reason we assess Bresnahan No. 3 for Mackenzie is that no democratic candidate has yet entered the race. Wheelwright announced that he would not look for his elderly mandate in 2026. Rep. Bridget Kosierowski; Mayor of Pittston Mike Lombardo; country Marta Flynn’s dream; and the mayor of Scanton Paige Cognetti.
4. 1. District: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Chosen: 2018
Geography: Philadelphia Suburbs: Bucks County
2024 House result: Fitzpatrick, 56.2%-43.4%
2024 Presidential result: Harris, 49.67%-49.35%
Partisan voting index (Cook political report with Amy Walter): D+1
Cash at hand until June 30: $ 6.5 million
Black: 3.4%
Latinos: 6.5%
Asian: 6%
Median income: USD 108 039
A bachelor’s degree or higher: 44.3%
Median value of apartments: $ 447 700
Poverty indicator: 6.5%
Fitzpatrick was a white whale for Democrats: he is a Republican, but he consistently wins a re -election in a district that votes a democratic president. In 2024, Fitzpatrick was only Three Republicans win in the districts that were supported Kamala Harris over Trump along with Don Bacon from Nebraska (who announced his pension) and Mike Lawler New York.
Can 2026 be the year in which the Democrats will finally defeat him? Fitzpatrick won about 13 points in 2024, introducing Trump in a solid 6 -point district. But the democrats have a certified candidate for the 2026 race: Bob Harviewho was elected Bucks Ferriers twice to the Council and was the chairman. Harvie informed $ 195,000 at the end of June; He will have to enhance his funds to compete to compete not only with the sought, but also to put ads on the steep media market in Philadelphia.
Fitzpatrick was one of the righteous Two Republicans Down vote against “Big Beautiful Bill” Trump along with Thomas Massie Kentucky. This can assist him among the crossover voters who supported Harris in 2024, but he can expose him to the risk among Trump’s supporters, with increased pressure on the main pretender.
Potentially sensitive
5. 17. District: Chris Deluzio (D)
Chosen: 2022
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburg: Alleghena and Beaver
2024 House result: Deluzio, 53.8%-46.1%
2024 Presidential result: Harris, 52.28%-46.77%
Partisan voting index (Cook political report with Amy Walter): D+3
Cash at hand until June 30: $ 450,000
Black: 7%
Latinos: 2.6%
Asian: 3.1%
Median income: 83 227 USD
A bachelor’s degree or higher: 46.4%
Median value of apartments: USD 243,200
Poverty indicator: 7.6%
Deluzio won his headquarters with a six -point margin in 2022 Rep. Rob Mercury In 2024, one and a half points before Harris in the district. Theoretically, Swingy District Deluzio can make him defenseless, but he has not left many openings for Republicans to employ; The obvious GOP candidate did not appear; The National Republican Congress Committee did not mention the place as a goal for 2026, at least not yet. That is why it takes 5th place on our list, in a lower category than in the four best seats.
Slightly sensitive
No races
Special attention
It is worth mentioning a different district, but it does not take up in our list, because there is basically no chance to reverse the party: 3. A district in which a competitive democratic basis is able to succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans. Harris won 88% of votes in the district in 2024.
