With control of the U.S. Senate on Monday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which assesses the leanings of political races, moved the dispute between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and GOP challenger Dave McCormick to the dreaded “reshuffle” column.
Essentially, Cook’s team now believes the race is too close to a call, based on the results of recent internal polls commissioned by both campaigns and political ad spending. This is not good news for Casey, who at one point had a double-digit lead in some outside polls. Cook has been rating the race as a “skinny Democrat” for most of the year. But for McCormick, who is making his second run for a U.S. Senate seat in the Keystone State, it’s welcome news in a campaign that’s been broken By mistake and the constant fight to prove that he lives in Pennsylvania, not Connecticut.
“We always knew this race would be extremely expensive and competitive thanks to the out-of-state billionaires who bankroll Connecticut hedge fund CEO David McCormick,” said Maddy McDaniel, a spokeswoman for the Casey campaign. “Bob Casey is a bipartisan leader who understands Pennsylvania’s values and will spend the final weeks until the election getting every vote across the commonwealth.”
While Casey has a slight lead in both campaigns’ latest internal polls, Cook said it’s also within the margin of error. In an apparent attempt to woo split-ticket voters, Casey’s campaign began running ads highlighting where he aligned with former President Donald Trump on Friday, in what the Trump campaign derided as a “desperate attempt to take over” the GOP nominee.
Real Clear Politics polling averages show that Casey still leads by two points from his initial eight-point lead. FiveThirtyEight’s survey trackers have already done this Casey is currently four points ahead. Both sites average results from surveys conducted over time, while Cook attributes the change in race classification largely to two recent internal polls.
“Dave McCormick outworks Bob Casey every day,” said Elizabeth Gregory, a spokeswoman for McCormick. “It’s time for change, and as a seventh-generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran and PA job creator, Dave McCormick will bring new leadership and fresh ideas to the Senate when Pennsylvania elects him on November 5.”
Both campaigns sent fundraising emails urging supporters to donate in airy of the up-to-date rankings.
In a sign of how significant Casey’s position is to both parties, the Pennsylvania Senate was tied for a tie more external spending than in any competition this cycleexcept for Ohio’s presidential race and Senate elections, which are viewed by both sides as must-win, according to money-in-politics tracker OpenSecrets. Most of that spending, $109 million of the $181 million, went to assist McCormick. Unlike conventional campaign contributions, there are no limits on how much each person can give to an outside spending group.
But it’s not all bad news for Casey. The latest campaign finance reports show the incumbent Democrat significantly outperformed McCormick. From the beginning of July to the end of September, Casey raised $16 million, more than double the $7.8 million McCormick raised during the same period.
McCormick, a hedge fund manager, contributed more than $4 million to his campaign throughout the race.
Casey is seeking re-election to a fourth term. The last Republican to win a Senate seat in Pennsylvania was Pat Toomey in 2016.
Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate, but that could change in the upcoming election. Democrats are widely expected to lose in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin, the last Democrat to hold statewide elected office, is not seeking re-election. Democratic senators in Ohio and Montana also have tight races. If either of them or Casey loses, it could tilt the Senate in favor of Republicans. If both parties win 50 seats, the deciding vote will go to the next vice president, either Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, or Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).
Republicans currently have a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Some tight races including Pennsylvaniacould also decide on control of this chamber.
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