🤔 Why no one ever says, “I’ve got Monday on my mind”? Today we have a longer one, so if your Guide gets cropped in Gmail, we apologize.
Weather in Pennsylvania
☂️Rochester | AM Rainy, shadowy, windy, 53
☀️ Carroll Valley | Mostly shining, 59
☁️Hawley | Mostly shadowy, with a slight chance of showers, 52
Sports PA
🏈 Pennsylvania State (6-0) | USC 33-30 (OT) | October 26 vs. Wisconsin
🏈 Pitt (6-0) | California 17-15 | October 24 vs. Syracuse
🏈 Temple (1-5) | Saturday vs. Tulsa
🏈 Eagles (4-2) | Cleveland 20-16 | Sun vs. NY Giants
🏈 Steelers (4-2) | Las Vegas 32-13 | Sun vs. NY Jets
⚽ Union (9-10-14) | Saturday vs. Cincinnati
🏒 Penguins (1-2) | Toronto 2-4 | Mon vs. Montreal
🏒 Leaflets (1-1) | Calgary 3-6 | Tuesday vs. Edmonton
👂 What we hear. “No Republican Senate candidate this year followed Winston Churchill’s famous injunction, “Deserve to win,” more than Dave McCormick” reads the Senate Leadership Memo. But “McCormick still needs to narrow his voting lead over Trump, and Trump needs to win.”
📊 PoliticsPA Poll Tracker (average of the last 5 PA polls)
President: Harris +0.8% | Senate: Casey +3.7%
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The most crucial story
1. Are male voters reluctant to vote for women?
“These concerns have been there all along, but now they are being talked about openly: Are some men reluctant to vote Democrat? Kamala Harris because she is a woman?
The vice president rarely references her gender during the campaign, but her core supporters are beginning to appeal more directly to male voters, hoping to overcome entrenched sexism – or just plain apathy – as Election Day approaches.” (New news about the castle)
Elsewhere
All candidates will be in Pennsylvania this week. “Both the candidates and their colleagues will be in Pennsylvania this week as polls continue to show the presidential race in the Keystone State is dead.” (Pittsburgh Postal Newspaper)
Six trends that could decide Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. “Pennsylvania is unique in many ways — it is very divided and geographically diverse. That, too, is changing, according to an Inquirer analysis of election data.” (Questioner from Philadelphia)
Harris and Trump are fighting for Jewish voters concerned about the Israel-Gaza conflict. “The contest is particularly visible in Pennsylvania, where approximately 400,000 Jews live, more than four times the number of Joe Biden in 2020.” (Washington Post Office)
Data shows that migrants are not taking jobs from black or Latino people, despite Trump’s words. “Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is promising the largest deportation the United States has ever seen if elected – a promise he based in part on the idea that immigrants in the U.S. legally and illegally steal what he calls “black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” ” (PennLive)
The pollster who sold Joe Biden to Gen Z analyzes today’s youth vote. “Late last month, the Harvard Institute of Politics released the results of its youth survey, the 48th survey of voters aged 18 to 29 and the first to compare Kamala Harris to Donald Trump. The result was spectacular for the Democratic candidate, who gained a 31-point lead after including smaller candidates. It was also not clear that she was the favorite in the race.” (Traffic lights)
Country
2. Pennsylvania’s top election official reassures voters by fighting misinformation
“Pennsylvania is the most important battleground in the race for the White House. With 19 electoral votes, it’s the state where former President Trump and Vice President Harris spend the most time and money – a combined $436 million between themselves and their allies.
Again, results may take several days to complete due to state law that prevents early processing of mail items. “The anticipated delay that dragged out Pennsylvania’s 2020 count has election officials now bracing for a repeat of conspiracy theories and violence.” (CBS News)
Elsewhere
Josh Shapiro rewrites Playbook. Will it give Harris a win in Pennsylvania? “He won over rural voters in staunchly Republican areas and defeated his opponent in swing counties, which Biden lost in 2020, when Shapiro was also on the ballot in his bid for re-election as attorney general. “Democrats hope Shapiro, 51, can strike again.” (USA today)
The politics of the swing state rots our brains and harms democracy. “Enough about fracking Pennsylvania!” (Slate)
The next chairman of the Freedom Club is fighting for his political life. “Democrats are pouring money into unseating former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry (R-Mo.) – and they may succeed this time.” (Axles)
- Pennsylvania Republicans are fighting to keep their seats in a tense House battle. (Hill)
The Republican lawsuits target foreign voter laws, but the ballots have already been mailed. “The latest voting method to fall into the political crosshairs is the way overseas voters – including members of the military stationed overseas – cast their ballots.” (AP)
Internal voting memo contains warning signs for Senate Republicans. “A new round of October polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows that in battleground states, all but one of the Republican candidates are behind Donald Trump, which could significantly limit their ability to build a large majority if they fail to force a change in the president’s final weeks . elections.” (POLICY)
- Senate Rankings: 5 seats most likely to be flipped. (Hill)
PA-01: What voters should know about Fitzpatrick and Ehasz. “Ashley Ehasz Challenges Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick in Another Attempt to Unseat a U.S. Congressman.” (WHY)
Around the Republic of Poland
3. This Erie union leader is a voter who could influence the presidential race
“Ryan Sanders this is the type of voter whose support may ultimately decide the presidential race. A resident of Erie County, Pennsylvania, Sanders describes himself as “middle of the road”: he leans toward conservatism, but also says he tends to oscillate between both sides of the middle. He is in his mid-40s and young, like many swing voters. Above all, he said he wanted a presidential candidate who would be “sincere” – a quality consistently appreciated by the undecided.
But there is at least one thing that sets Sanders apart from other swing voters — he is a proud member of Sheet Metal Workers Local 12 and president of the Erie-Crawford Central Labor Council (CLC), the local arm of the AFL-CIO.” (Capital and principal)
Elsewhere
How Pittsburgh became the center of the political universe. “With Pennsylvania’s precious 19 Electoral College votes at stake, two of the most watched politicians in the world have been crisscrossing our area over the past few months, making it almost a second home in the presidential contest.” (Greensburg Tribune Review)
Dominion accepts responsibility for spelling errors on Luzerne County absentee ballots. “Dominion Voting Systems takes responsibility for misspelling State Representative Alec Ryncavage’s name on 6,700 mail-in ballots.” (WNEP)
Voting deadlines coming soon in PA as local officials prepare for the election. “October 21 is the last day to register in Pennsylvania before the election. Anyone who wants to apply for an absentee or absentee ballot must do so by October 29. (Johnstown Tribune-Democrat)
Questionable spending mounts for state Sen. Jimmy Dillon and the Philadelphia Democrat running for re-election. “State Senator Jimmy Dillon, a Democrat from Philadelphia, has dozens of questionable expenses in his official state spending reports and campaign accounts, such as filling up his gas tank in the Jersey shore in the summer, expensive flower purchases, and spending at bars and restaurants on Christmas Day and New Year’s Eve – but he doesn’t talk about them. (Wide + Freedom)
Where do the AP candidates stand on climate change? “Can Pennsylvania protect the environment and jobs? Princeton journalism students tested how candidates from the major federal and state parties handled this question. This is what they learned” (Citizen of Philadelphia)
Electoral guides
Editorial
4. What do you mean
1 item
5. October Bank Holiday Monday
“Today is Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day, huh President Biden celebrated for the first time in 2021 as a national holiday and has been widely adopted throughout the United States. Depending on where you live, your state or city may celebrate one of two holidays, both, or a completely different one (over half of U.S. states do not recognize either day as an official state holiday).
As with the other 10 federal holidays on the calendar, most banks will be closed, the USPS will not deliver mail, and another generation of Americans will be introduced to “The Price is Right.” (Morning brew)
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